Predictive Commerce: Why Life-Stage Data Could Replace Retail Media’s Obsession with Transactions

Most retail media networks are built to look backward. But what if the real opportunity is predicting what customers will do next? In this episode, a reprise of my recent article for The Drum, I dig into a fascinating new model that challenges the industry’s reliance on transaction data and closed-loop attribution.I’m unpacking my recent conversation with Marco Steinsieck, former head of Sephora’s media network and now GM of Backpack Media, an education-powered commerce media network built on Sallie’s ecosystem. I also play a snippet of Marco's recent appearance on The Middlemen podcast to explore how life-stage signals — like planning for college or making first financial decisions — might be a far more powerful indicator of future purchases than anything sitting in a transaction log. This one raises big questions about where commerce media is headed and whether the current playbook is already outdated.This episode is sponsored by Mirakl AdsTimeline[00:00] – Why most commerce media networks are stuck selling the past [00:30] – Marco Steinsieck's big idea: predicting future purchases, not past behavior [01:04] – Life-stage data vs. transaction data: why one is a leading indicator [02:00] – Inside Backpack Media and how education data powers predictive modeling [03:15] – Lessons from Sephora: building a high-performing media network without massive scale [04:00] – The privacy-first challenge of building media inside a financial institution [07:30] – Is this really “commerce media”? Rethinking the definition of the category [09:00] – Why predictive commerce is still unproven, and what needs to happen nextLinks & ResourcesMarco Steinsieck profile on The Drum: Meet the former Sephora exec betting commerce media can predict the futureMarco Steinsieck's full appearance on The Middlemen podcast: Beyond Transactions — Marco Steinsieck (Backpack Media)Subscribe to The Middlemen on YouTube and Apple PodcastsFollow Marco Steinsieck on LinkedInRead my related articles:Best Buy Wants To Become An Ad Platform, Not Just Another RMNSam's Club Cracked the Code on In-Store Retail Media—Here's How They Did ItRetailers Hit 99% Ad Coverage Without Killing User Experience, New Research ShowsI'm keynoting at Xnurta's Signal to Scale summit on May 19 in Chicago. This is the room to be in if you work in retail media, care about what AI actually changes, and want to leave with something you can put to work. A full day focused on agentic AI, modern measurement, and the strategies the best teams are already building toward. Reserve your spot here.EMARKETER is teaming up again with Bain to survey retail media network leaders for a unique insight into the forces shaping the industry. The survey is intended for people working in-house on retail media teams, and it is global this year! The survey is also double-anonymized. The survey organizers will not know, nor are they trying to determine, which specific retail media network a respondent works for. The goal is to understand broader retail media trends, not attribute responses to individual companies. Please take the survey here. In Atlanta? Join the Commerce Media Happy Hour on Wednesday May 20! RSVP hereI am sharing comedy skits on Instagram about retail media! Follow along: @retailmediabreakfastclubSubscribe to Retail Media Breakfast Club's daily newsletterFollow Kiri Masters on LinkedIn