Profit From AI Forecasting Bets - Michael Ulin And Lily Patrascu

AI Innovator Shares How To Make Profit From AI Forecasting Bets - Michael Ulin And Lily Patrascu Michael Ulin is a leading AI forecasting innovator and high-precision prediction strategist. With 76% accuracy across 10,000 prediction market questions through Tenki, he has built an AI forecasting infrastructure that helps traders identify high-probability opportunities the market overlooks. He explains that Tenki evaluates probabilities, compares them to real-time market prices, and sizes allocations using the Kelly criterion so users can profit systematically rather than relying on gut instinct. He shares that Tenki weighs news, polling data, and social signals automatically, producing clearer probability estimates than most individuals can calculate on their own. He highlights that the biggest profit comes when Tenki’s forecasts diverge sharply from market sentiment, allowing users to capitalize on mispriced predictions. His success demonstrates how AI-driven probabilistic reasoning can outperform intuition and transform forecasting into a repeatable investment strategy. About The Guest Michael Ulin is the founder of Tenki, an AI forecasting infrastructure that has achieved 76% accuracy across more than 10,000 prediction-market questions. Tenki brings rigorous probabilistic reasoning to traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, with a long-term vision of powering strategic forecasting across industries. Before Tenki, Michael built two AI companies. As part of the founding team at ZestyAI, he helped develop climate-risk models that now underwrite more than $4T in property insurance. At Paxton AI, he served as CTO and scaled the company from zero to millions in ARR by building generative-AI tools for legal research. Across both ventures, he contributed to raising a combined $78M. Michael’s background blends McKinsey strategy with hands-on ML and LLM engineering. He moves fluidly between GTM planning and code reviews, always focused on shipping fast and driving product-market fit. He lives in Bend, Oregon with his husband and three dogs, and is always up for swapping notes on AI, forecasting, PLG, fundraising realities, or the best pour-over in the Pacific Northwest. For More Info About Michael Ulin, visit: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelulin/ https://x.com/michaelulin Timestamp 00:00 Introduction to AI Forecasting 00:05 Building Tenki: An AI Forecasting Tool 00:39 Achievements Before Tenki 01:10 Introduction to Prediction Markets 01:52 How Tenki Works 03:48 Understanding Betting and Strategy 06:15 Kelly Criterion and Allocation 12:13 Personal Use of Tenki 13:18 Tenki's Data Sources and Objectivity 20:59 Insights on Prediction Markets 23:40 Investment Psychology with Tenki 29:06 Conclusion and Connectivity About The Host Lily Patrascu is an ultra-creative book publisher and personal brand strategist for thought leaders, CEOs, luxury influencers. As an influencer, bestselling author, copywriter, global speaker, she supports busy entrepreneurs to find their message and share it with millions of people. Feel free to connect with me or find out more about my book publishing/influential entrepreneur events/speaking/ projects here: https://linktr.ee/lilypatrascu & https://www.lily.global I am launching a few collaborative books: on property wealth strategies, confidence, millionaire secrets, health tools, AI, and seeking influencers with large communities to promote their expertise with the books. I can help you write/ghostwrite and publish your books in 90 days. Message me (Lily) on +447557351222 to collaborate. If you want to be featured on this podcast, and you're a successful entrepreneur able to share about how you grew your company, book your spot here: http://www.lily.global/podcast - *********************************************************** Getting featured is free. 🎧 Listening is free. But creating this podcast takes time, energy, and resources. 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