Profit Is Not Proof

In trading, a profit feels like the ultimate proof that you made the right decision. But what if that instinct is completely wrong? In this episode of Thinking in Options, we challenge one of the most common illusions in trading: the belief that profit validates a decision. Traders often judge their trades by the outcome—if the account balance goes up, the trade must have been smart. But in probabilistic systems like markets, outcomes can be wildly misleading.