EPISODE · May 15, 2026 · 38 MIN
Protecting the LAST 70% & Why our Merchant Friends LOVE rallies!
from What the Futures! · host Ryan Denis
In Episode 122 of the What the Futures podcast, Ryan reviews a volatile week in prairie crop markets after a USDA-driven spike and explains how grain companies often widen or protect basis during rallies, creating large price discrepancies between nearby elevators. He urges farmers to focus on execution during seeding-season market spikes, emphasizing that rallies can materially improve farm profitability and should be evaluated and protected. Using real examples (e.g., Killam vs. Daysland, Alberta; Aberdeen vs. Melfort, Saskatchewan), he compares wheat bids and breaks down futures, currency, and basis to show differences of roughly 50+ cents per bushel. Ryan discusses strategies to manage the remaining unsold crop without high buyout risk, including put options, structured floors with upside, and averaging-type contracts, and encourages active price discovery across buyers. 00:00 USDA Spike Setup 01:30 Short Sweet Focus 02:39 Merchandisers Love Rallies 04:16 This Week Market Recap 05:40 Profitability Wake Up Call 15:47 Execution After Spikes 17:53 How Farms Sell Rallies 21:43 Act Of God Reality 22:29 Protect The Remaining 70 25:02 Elevator Price Math 31:16 Risk Tools And Options 35:54 Eating Your Veggies
What this episode covers
In Episode 122 of the What the Futures podcast, Ryan reviews a volatile week in prairie crop markets after a USDA-driven spike and explains how grain companies often widen or protect basis during rallies, creating large price discrepancies between nearby elevators. He urges farmers to focus on execution during seeding-season market spikes, emphasizing that rallies can materially improve farm profitability and should be evaluated and protected. Using real examples (e.g., Killam vs. Daysland, Alberta; Aberdeen vs. Melfort, Saskatchewan), he compares wheat bids and breaks down futures, currency, and basis to show differences of roughly 50+ cents per bushel. Ryan discusses strategies to manage the remaining unsold crop without high buyout risk, including put options, structured floors with upside, and averaging-type contracts, and encourages active price discovery across buyers. 00:00 USDA Spike Setup 01:30 Short Sweet Focus 02:39 Merchandisers Love Rallies 04:16 This Week Market Recap 05:40 Profitability Wake Up Call 15:47 Execution After Spikes 17:53 How Farms Sell Rallies 21:43 Act Of God Reality 22:29 Protect The Remaining 70 25:02 Elevator Price Math 31:16 Risk Tools And Options 35:54 Eating Your Veggies
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Protecting the LAST 70% & Why our Merchant Friends LOVE rallies!
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