Proyectamos en Argentina una contracción de 4% del PIB este año

from BBVA Research · host BBVA Podcast

Juan Manuel Manías, de BBVA Research, comenta las previsiones publicadas en la publicación de Situación Argentina. Junio 2024 subrayando positivamente en lo económico que transcurridos seis meses el Gobierno avanzó en el plano fiscal, lo que permitió contraer la emisión monetaria y desacelerar la inflación, en un contexto en el que la Ley Bases es sumamente importante para el ordenamiento de la economía en el medio y largo plazo. Otra esfera también muy llamativa, destaca, es el apoyo que sigue sosteniendo el Gobierno a pesar de estar en un proceso de ajuste económico muy fuerte con el desempleo y la inflación elevados. Sobre esta, ha desacelerado más rápido de lo esperado, aunque hacia adelante los ajustes de precios regulados todavía pendientes le imponen cierto freno a la desinflación. La previsión es que llegue a 135% hacia diciembre. Además, explica que en el 1T24 la actividad económica profundizó su recesión como resultado de las medidas tomadas para encarar la resolución de los desequilibrios macroeconómicos. Se proyecta una contracción de 4% del PIB este año, en un entorno en el que las cuentas externas mejorarán este 2024 por la caída de importaciones por la recesión, la recuperación de las exportaciones agrícolas en un año sin sequía y el balance positivo del sector de energía por menores compras de gas importado y aumento de exportaciones de petróleo.

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This episode was published on July 24, 2024.

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