权利:谁在50年内会成为超级大国 episode artwork

EPISODE · Aug 4, 2017 · 2 MIN

权利:谁在50年内会成为超级大国

from Quora Selected 附导读

Who will be the top superpower 50 years from now?H.L. Cowan, The local American neoconUpdated Jun 24USA - You don’t honestly expect them to go anywhere do you? China will probably have a large economy in 50 years, but the US GDP per capita will still be much larger. On top of that, the US has an unchallenged military logistics network. With more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined, top-of-the-line technology, and a global span and size to match the US has a presence and or impact in nearly every area of the globe.China - Their economy will get bigger and so will their military spending. Will they surpass the US as a superpower? Likely not, and even if they could, would they want to? The US both created and defined what a superpower does, and the standard can get pretty expensive. China lacks the soft power, military logistics, and span to match US impact now and I’m not sure that will change that drastically.This is where the list ends. I don’t see Brazil, India, the UK, or Russia being a top superpower in 50 years. They might be powerful, but being a ‘superpower’ is a whole other ball game. Russia doesn’t have the economy to keep up, the UK doesn’t have the desire to keep up, and India and Brazil don’t even have the potential that China does to keep up.Edit: Some have questioned why the EU hasn't been brought up here. First off, the EU isn't a country and they don't have a military. They are an economic trading bloc. The EU just lost the UK and my bet is you'd get a lot more nation's dropping off once you start proposing consolidating dozens of nations with different cultures and backgrounds. Yugoslavia couldn't even stay together so I doubt the entire EU can. On top of that, Europe's birth rates are stalling, if not declining. A declining birth rate does not make for a superpower in 50 years. If there is going to be a superpower other than the US, it's going to be in Asia, not Europe.

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