Reading tea-leaves: 2026 predictions

BRICS Unit Token: Small but steady progress—Q1 2026 pilot expands to real commodity trades (oil, metals); Western pressure (U.S./EU sanctions threats) slows full rollout but fails to block it entirely. Probability: 80%.EU Frozen Assets: Attempts to confiscate Russian funds turn into PR disaster (lawsuits against Euroclear drag on); EU still secures partial loan for Ukraine via creative accounting/workarounds. Probability: 70%.U.S. Tariffs: Trump dials back aggressive rates with temporary suspensions to ease mid-term backlash; focus shifts to domestic wins. Probability: 65%.U.S. Mid-Terms & Politics: Trump admin pours energy into stump speeches; money printing accelerates (M2 growth 8–10%). Probability: 85%.U.S. Economy: New dovish Fed chair keeps rates low; GDP takes off (3–4% growth); inflation stays controlled (2–3%) via energy deals. Probability: 75%.Japan Economic Moves: Major stimulus package; yen weakens further; BOJ ends negative rates fully—big export boost. Probability: 90%.Venezuela: No U.S. boots on ground; continued diplomatic/economic pressure but no regime change. Probability: 80%.BRICS/SCO Demand: Increased applications (15–20 new partners); nations seek protection from sanctions/tariffs. Probability: 85%.Ukraine War: Continues to grind on—no decisive breakthrough; frozen conflict lines solidify. Probability: 70%.India GDP: Rises 7–8%; becomes clear 4th-largest economy, pulling more trade into BRICS orbit. Probability: 90%.AI Growth: Explodes in importance; China releases new specialized AI chip outperforming Blackwell in generative tasks (e.g., DeepSeek-style efficiency). Probability: 75%.AI Pivot: Shift to SoC-type chips optimized for specific models (K2, DeepSeek); cost/performance edge for BRICS-aligned tech. Probability: 80%.Europe Crises: UK faces deep recession (negative growth); Germany deindustrialisation worsens (manufacturing contraction); France sees major protests and economic stagnation. Probability: 70%. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wgowbrics.substack.com