Real Jobs Data Looks Weaker Than Reported

Weak Jobs, Choppy Rates, and the Fed's Next MoveThe economy is still growing, but weakening job creation, persistent inflation, elevated rates, and growing uncertainty are creating a complicated environment for consumers, lenders, and investors. From Corona, California, KP breaks down the latest labor-market data, Federal Reserve policy, mortgage rates, housing trends, and the forces shaping the economy heading into the final stretch of the year.KP starts with a look at the labor market and the growing gap between headline jobs data and the underlying numbers. He explains how the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) has revised job creation lower and why an average of only a few tens of thousands of jobs created per month could signal a much weaker labor market than the official reports suggest.He then examines inflation and the Federal Reserve, including Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish comments, the latest PCE data, the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean inflation measure, and the shifting odds of a rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. KP explains why the Fed may continue to hold rates despite pressure from the bond market and why inflation, labor data, and the upcoming midterm election could all influence the timing of future rate decisions.The conversation also explores the bond market, Treasury yields, and the potential risks created by higher rates. KP discusses Japanese yen intervention, the yen carry trade, Treasury market volatility, and why another Fed rate hike could increase borrowing costs for consumers while putting additional pressure on already highly leveraged capital markets.KP examines housing, economic growth, AI investment, and the latest employment data, including ADP, job cuts, and rising VA mortgage activity. As Labor Day approaches, he highlights the key signals investors and mortgage professionals should watch in an uncertain rate environment.Episode Highlights:00:00 – QCEW revisions and why job creation may be weaker than reported00:26 – KP returns to the office in Corona, California00:43 – A tour of the PRMG office and the new podcast studio02:28 – Company milestones and PRMG's growth03:22 – Social Coach and upcoming industry events04:32 – PRMG's internal TV station and company operations05:00 – The new fitness room and office expansion06:00 – KP's first look at the new podcast room06:32 – Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish comments and the inflation outlook07:00 – PCE inflation and the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean measure07:20 – Will the Fed hold rates through the September meeting?08:20 – Inflation, consumer purchasing power, and the compounding effect of higher prices09:20 – The QCEW and the real state of the labor market10:07 – Why 273,000 reported jobs may have been overstated10:20 – QCEW revisions and the weak pace of job creation10:40 – Why the upcoming jobs report could be revised lower11:00 – Unemployment, the Fed, and the possibility of a rate hike11:20 – Bond markets, Treasury intervention, and the yen carry trade12:00 – How higher rates could impact consumers and capital markets12:20 – Case-Shiller home prices and the housing market12:40 – Housing inflation and its impact on CPI and PCE13:00 – GDP growth and the outlook for the second half of the year13:20 – AI investment, data centers, and economic growth14:00 – Why the Fed and bond market may be sending different signals14:20 – The jobs report and the importance of labor-market data15:00 – The QCEW's 36,000 average monthly job creation figure16:20 – Unemployment, labor supply, and the impact of reduced immigration16:40 – U6 unemployment and the broader labor market17:00 – CME FedWatch and shifting rate-hike expectations17:20 – Inflation, oil prices, and the Fed's policy dilemma18:00 – Why the housing market remains active despite being "frozen"18:20 – Why the market is struggling to find certainty19:20 – ADP reports only 38,000 jobs created20:00 – Healthcare and education driving job growth20:35 – Corporate earnings, AI, and the "jobless growth" economy21:20 – Could consumers be entering a rolling recession?22:00 – Challenger job cuts and the latest employment trends22:40 – VA mortgage lending surges in the first half of the year23:00 – Why mortgage professionals should keep grinding through uncertaintyAs the Fed weighs inflation and a weakening labor market, KP examines key economic signals, from jobs and bonds to housing, AI investment, GDP, and VA lending.Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense#FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #JobsReport #LaborMarket #QCEW #Inflation #Economy #MortgageMarket #BondMarket #Treasury #GDP #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #VAloans #FinancialMarkets #KPTalksDollarsAndSense