Relative Return Insider: Chief economist warns of one further rate hike in 2026

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Olivia Grace-Curran sits down with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver to unpack the Reserve Bank's latest rate hike, the inflation outlook, geopolitical risks and what it all means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile environment. Oliver says the RBA's third consecutive rate hike reflects growing concern that inflation could become entrenched, particularly amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued closure risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While he believes rates are either at or near their peak, he expects at least one more hike could arrive later this year before cuts begin in 2027. Oliver warns a prolonged blockage of the Strait could trigger a more severe stagflationary shock for Australia and the global economy. Australia's heavy reliance on imported fuel exposes broader vulnerabilities in national energy security and supply chains. The Australian dollar has strengthened as the RBA continues tightening while other central banks remain on hold.