Relative Return Insider: RBA, Fed and the forecasting trap

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins host Olivia Grace-Curran to unpack how key macro forces are shaping markets in Australia and the US. They explore what shifts in jobs data and unemployment mean for the RBA, why base effects can make inflation look better on the surface than it is underneath, and how that feeds into interest‑rate expectations and the Australian dollar. In the US, the conversation covers hawkish Fed signals, the importance of core PCE inflation, and mounting concerns over soaring government debt. The episode also looks at why gold and Bitcoin often rally as hedges when debt, inflation and policy uncertainty rise, and the market implications of geopolitical tensions and oil prices. Shane also highlights how the explosion of AI, social media, and financial commentary has amplified the noise rather than improved forecasting.