Rents Are Falling. Why Is Everyone Building Rentals?

Toronto has almost stopped building condos. Starts hit a multi-decade low last year, and by the end of the decade there will be virtually no new condo completions at all. So nearly all the new housing this city gets over the next five years will be purpose-built rental — apartment buildings owned by the people who build them. My guest is Matt Spoke, a partner at Toronto Standard, which develops, builds, and holds midrise rental across Toronto. He's a CPA and former tech founder who runs the firm's capital side, so he thinks about housing the way an underwriter does. We talk about why this way of building disappeared for 25 years and what's bringing it back, why he builds midrise instead of joining the multiplex boom, and which government policies actually got shovels in the ground. I also push him on CMHC — purpose-built rental depends on government-insured loans no private lender would offer, and Matt generally favours markets over intervention. Then the question I most wanted answered: rents are down about 4% from last year and roughly 12% off their 2023 peak, and he's putting up buildings that won't have tenants for two or three years. So what rent is he actually assuming — and does he think rents go up from here, or down?