Repeat or Reset? Is AI Venture the New 2021? | Jason Saltzman, CB Insights

Is the AI deal market a repeat of 2021—or is this time actually different?Jason Saltzman runs insights at CB Insights, where he turns data on millions of private companies into a read on where the market is really going. In this pilot episode of The Cap Table, Sam Andersen, partner at Element Ventures, brings him on to answer the questions nobody has clean answers to.They dive into the K-shaped venture economy, why private companies now collectively outvalue every top IPO in history, what specifically broke in 2021, and why 53% of unicorns from that era are already worse off. They also discuss behavioral data from Affinity pulled from hundreds of private equity companies over the last two years. It turns out, the most efficient firms scaled email outreach 12x while the least efficient sent 5x more emails and got fewer results.The data proves it: Relationships beat volume every time, upholding a near-universal truth in private capital.Finally, they close on this: Does the 2026 AI vintage end up looking like 2021? Both say no. The reasoning is worth hearing.The Cap Table is a podcast by Affinity.🔗 Affinity: https://www.affinity.co🔗 CB Insights: https://www.cbinsights.comConnect with Jason: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-salt Connect with Sam:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/samander/ Follow Affinity YouTube: ‪‪@affinity_presents‬ YouTube (product): ‪‪@affinity_co‬ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/project-affinity/ (00:00) - Introductions (00:12) - Does the AI deal market of today feel like 2021 right now? (08:37) - How do you (as an investor) re-center founders as a source of investment value in 2026? (10:51) - Are the largest firms behaving fundamentally differently on AI deals than everyone else? (13:03) - Are large traditional venture capital funds beginning to behave more like growth funds? (17:25) - Are growth funds buying secondary from seed funds within the same corporate umbrella? (19:20) - Are founders pitching differently knowing firms are moving faster? (21:16) - Is category crowding part of the explanation for firm inefficiency? (29:54) - What actually broke in 2021 beyond high valuations? (35:24) - Are "zombie unicorns"actually closing their doors? (40:08) - What is actually differentiated right now versus what's vibe codeable? (47:08) - Half of firms worked harder and got worse results; what separates the two halves? (52:03) - How would a GP know if they were being overtaken by more efficient firms? (57:41) - Are firms moving faster on AI because of conviction or 2021 FOMO? (01:01:20) - How do you underwrite AI without 2021 logic? (01:06:20) - Are the best AI investors scaling outreach or just taking more meetings? (01:11:18) - Does the email outreach conversion efficiency gap become a return predictor? (01:16:32) - Does the 2026 AI vintage of companies look like 2021?