Republican candidates in Indiana are unpopular enough to beat

Polling data takes up more space in my world than campaign ads do. It's truly remarkable. In any presidential election year, I am normally exhausted by every candidate's pitch on TV by now. Thirty seconds at a time, the sound bites should have already eroded a precious sliver of my soul, and possibly yours as well. Not this year. Not even on my chosen social platforms am I overwhelmed with the ads, barring a few odd, out-of-state exceptions. Nope. Polling data updates, some reliable and some absurd, is what I see most. Maybe it's just my algorithm. Maybe I've been identified as an unpersuadable, data wonk. Or maybe the red-state-message in this red state is the problem. A poll released last week by Destiny Wells, the Democrat nominee for attorney general, was the first public one showing details of two statewide races. The pollster, Lake Research Partners, is reputable. The sampling was appropriate, made up of 51% Republican voters and 36% Democrat. Wells only trails incumbent AG, Todd Rokita, 44-41%. Name identification for the incumbent is understandably twice as high as it is for Wells, which leads me to conclude that the more people know Rokita, the more people don't like him. Rokita's low numbers are easy to explain. He is primarily known for performative antics that deliver nothing of value to Hoosiers, led by his unhinged attack on Dr. Caitlin Bernard for doing her job as an obstetrician. He has solicited complaints against state government, otherwise known as his own client. He has never seen a pro-Trump lawsuit he didn't volunteer to join. And his law license has been regularly in jeopardy for unlawyerly behavior. He's simply unpopular. Go figure. The Indiana governor's race was also included in the poll, and not surprisingly, it too shows a dead heat. Republican Mike Braun's 41% to Democrat Jennifer McCormick's 39% is inside the margin of error. Libertarian Donald Rainwater's 9% support matters too. McCormick is polling seven points better than the 2020 Democratic candidate performed. The other two parties are lagging last election's finish. That's a meaningful turn. But Indiana's still red right? Trump is still the favorite here for president, right? Yes. But his polling strength is also weakening here. He won Indiana by 19 points in 2016, by 16 in 2020, and is polling only 10 points ahead of Kamala Harris in this poll, 52%-42%. Again, this is a meaningful turn.   Connect with Michael Leppert Visit michaelleppert.com to read the full post and links to any resources or articles mentioned. Twitter @michaelleppert  Facebook at Michael Leppert