Resilience Tested: What's at Stake for the US Economy

In this episode, taken from our May 19 client webinar, our economists unpack a high-stakes U.S. macro outlook shaped by geopolitical conflict, higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and change at the helm of the Federal Reserve.  US GDP growth held up well in 2025, even as businesses and households faced historically high tariffs, volatility in financial markets and elevated uncertainty. This year brings a new source of risk: war in the Middle East. The U.S. economy should remain resilient in 2026, but growth is expected to slow to 1.6% as elevated oil prices and softer consumer spending weigh on activity. Our experts also explore why tariffs are still keeping prices elevated, why the Fed is expected to stay on hold through 2026, and why rate cuts are not projected to resume until June 2027. If you want a clear, scenario-based read on where the U.S. economy may be headed next—and what could change the path—this is the episode to queue up. A sharp, scenario-driven look at the 2026 U.S. economy—from oil shocks and inflation to tariffs, recession risk, and the Fed's next move. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: May 2026 US Economic Pulse: Tax Day Click here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Monthly Macro Monitor: The mounting economic costs of the Middle East conflict US core PCE inflation rises to 3.3%; real spending up 0.1% in April Frequently asked question: Should we be concerned about the labor force participation rate? Credits: Host: Emily Crowley Guests: Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Michael Zdinak, Lawrence Nelson Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun