Retail Spending Beats Forecasts as Homebuyers Wait for Lower Rates

Mortgage pricing improved, oil prices moved lower, and markets turned their attention toward the Federal Reserve and a possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement. In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut explains why rates improved and why buyers should pay attention to more than just today's mortgage quote. Ed recently saw a borrower's available rate improve by approximately one-quarter percentage point between the initial quote and the loan disclosure. That improvement shows how quickly mortgage pricing can change when oil, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and geopolitical headlines shift. The episode also covers the latest Mortgage Bankers Association application report. Overall mortgage application volume declined 3.8% for the week. Purchase applications fell 3.4%, while refinance applications dropped 4.5%. Although refinance activity remained above last year's level, Ed explains that the numbers are still weak compared with periods when rates were substantially lower. Retail sales offered a different signal. May sales increased 0.9%, beating expectations, while sales excluding automobiles rose 0.8%. Consumers are still spending despite concerns about affordability and household budgets. Ed also discusses: Mortgage pricing improving during the morning The 10-year Treasury holding near 4.43% Oil settling below $80 per barrel Why lower oil may eventually reduce inflation pressure Falling purchase and refinance applications Stronger-than-expected retail sales Continued weakness in builder confidence The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision A possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement Reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls Why waiting for lower rates may create more buyer competition The central message is to focus on the right property and overall financial strategy. Rates may improve, but lower borrowing costs can quickly bring more buyers back into the housing market. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage insight, housing-market updates, economic reports, and market news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #MortgageRates #MortgageApplications #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #FederalReserve #FOMC #RetailSales #OilPrices #Inflation #TenYearTreasury #HomeBuyingTips #Refinance #HousingAffordability #HomebuyerCompetition #MortgageMarket #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth