Reverse Carry Risks Are Back!

Japan’s bond yields are rising to levels that were unthinkable just a few years ago, and markets are starting to ask whether the next reverse carry trade is already building beneath the surface. As the Bank of Japan slowly exits decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, higher Japanese yields could encourage investors to bring money home, reducing demand for US Treasuries and tightening global liquidity conditions. The last major reverse carry episode in August 2024 triggered a sharp selloff in global equities, with the Nikkei plunging nearly 20% and the Nasdaq dropping around 14%. This time, the risk could become more structural — especially as rising oil prices, sticky inflation, and stretched AI valuations increase pressure on global markets... or not! Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.