RH 8.5.26 | Iran and The Middle East | Hormuz Talks, Houthi Strikes, Missile Crunch

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Daily Intel Brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ Get the daily intelligence brief Ryan and Glenn read covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, geopolitics, sanctions, military and intel operations. Save a few hours of your time getting ahead of the news cycle at restrictedhandling.com. A potential breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to take shape, but nobody should celebrate just yet. In this episode of The Restricted Handling Daily Intel Brief, Ryan and Glenn break down the fast-moving negotiations involving Iran, Oman, Qatar, and the United States. Iranian and Omani officials say talks over safe shipping arrangements are progressing, while President Donald Trump says discussions with Tehran have gone very well and predicts the strait could reopen soon. That sounds promising. The details are where things get complicated. Iran wants its sovereign rights recognized and expects a lasting role in managing one of the world's most important waterways. Washington opposes Iranian control over passage and any system of compulsory tolls. Meanwhile, the United States continues to maintain pressure on Iranian ports and shipping. Any workable agreement must answer three big questions: Who authorizes transit? Will ships be required to pay fees? How will US blockade or sanctions relief be sequenced against Iranian compliance? The shipping numbers show just how far the situation remains from normal. Only eight vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the conflict, roughly 130 to 140 ships passed through every day. Markets may jump on diplomatic headlines, but tankers, insurers, crews, and port operators need clear rules before commercial traffic can truly recover. And Hormuz is only half the problem. The Houthis claim they attacked a Saudi oil tanker near Yanbu with ballistic missiles, although Saudi officials have not confirmed the strike. A separate projectile attack sank an Indian-flagged vessel near Yemen, with all fourteen crew members rescued. With commercial shipping still threatened near Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, the Middle East now faces a dangerous two-chokepoint crisis. That is a major problem for oil markets, global trade, and energy security. Even if a temporary Hormuz corridor emerges, Houthi attacks could continue putting Saudi export routes and Red Sea traffic at risk. Oil prices are already swinging between optimism over diplomacy and fear of the next missile launch. The episode also examines growing concerns about US precision-guided munitions. Officials familiar with internal data say the Army has used virtually all available ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles committed to the Iran war. Another account suggests the United States has expended slightly less than half of its global Tomahawk inventory. The White House and Pentagon dispute claims that the military lacks the weapons required for its missions, and the exact numbers remain unverified. Still, inventory pressure matters. Another major strike campaign could require more piloted aircraft, weapons pulled from other theaters, or systems reserved for possible conflicts involving Russia or China. Iran understands that calculation, and it may influence Tehran's willingness to delay, disperse, or bargain. Inside Iran, the government's domestic crackdown continues. The United Nations human-rights chief says Iranian authorities have executed at least 56 people on national-security charges since March 19, including 27 cases connected to protests. More than 100 additional people reportedly face possible execution. President Masoud Pezeshkian has also denied rumors that he plans to resign, highlighting continued concern about leadership stability and elite cohesion. This episode connects the entire picture: Strait of Hormuz negotiations, Trump's threats against Iran, Omani and Qatari mediation, Houthi attacks, Saudi oil shipping, Red Sea security, US missile inventories, Iranian executions, and the pressure building inside Tehran. The diplomatic opening is meaningful, but the real test will come on the water. Watch for publicly announced transit rules, a sustained increase in shipping, fewer maritime attacks, and concrete US steps involving the blockade or sanctions. Until then, oil markets will continue moving much faster than the ships themselves.