Rivals in a Tight Embrace Russia, China, and the Central Asian Chessboard

This podcast episode by Alevtina Solovyeva traces Central Asia as the enduring crossroads “between empires,” where caravan routes outlast the borders drawn over them. It opens with the Silk Roads: trade as the region’s original superpower – moving goods, ideas, and identities. The narrative then tracks how Qing–Russian rivalry and the 19th century “Great Game” layered governors, railways, and taxes onto steppe and peoples, then the Soviet period engineered republics, industries, and pipelines while China watched, split, and later recalibrated. Independence for the five Central Asian states after 1991 reset the board: Russia remained the familiar security habit; China re-entered with capital and corridors, culminating in the Belt and Road. Multi-vector tendencies took hold as Turkey, Iran, Japan, Korea, the U.S., and the EU pressed in. The 2022, start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, accelerated internal and external processes concerning Central Asia as a strategic area, as well as a Russia-China partner-rivalry across energy, transport, finance, and soft power. Four platforms – SCO, EAEU, BRICS, and BRI – showcase both cooperation and competition, with BRI as the physical layer that forces choices on routes, rules, and control. Looking to 2025-2030, three stress tests loom: the terms of Power of Siberia-2, corridor races (CKU vs. Kazakh/Middle Corridor routes), and “security creep.” Central Asia has become a focal arena for international actors amid deep shifts in power balances and rules. It is a fast-moving environment with open-ended trajectories, multiple internal and external agents and situational theatres where interests intersect. Dr. Alevtina Solovyeva is the Head of the Centre for Oriental Studies and Mongolian Research Laboratory at the University of Tartu. She specializes in Asian studies, Chinese and Mongolian studies, folklore studies, historical and social anthropology, and social sciences.