Russia’s largest bank forecasts $46 billion in first-year crypto exchange trading under new rules: report — 2026-08-31

## Short Segments ## Feature Story Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, projects a staggering $46 billion in crypto exchange trading within the first year under new regulations set to take effect on September 1, 2026. This forecast marks a significant shift in Russia's approach to cryptocurrency, as the country moves towards a more regulated digital asset market. Sberbank's Deputy Chairman, Anatoly Popov, shared these insights ahead of the Eastern Economic Forum, highlighting the potential for regulated crypto trading to reach between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles in its inaugural year. These figures represent approximately 20% of Russia's current annual cryptocurrency transaction volume, indicating a substantial move towards formalizing the crypto market. Despite this, Popov noted that a significant portion of crypto trading is expected to remain outside the regulated exchange system. The new regulations are part of Russia's broader strategy to integrate digital assets into its financial system, providing a legal framework for broker crypto trading. This move is expected to attract institutional investors and enhance market transparency. However, the regulations also impose strict annual purchase caps for non-qualified investors, limiting them to $3,800 worth of crypto purchases per year. This measure aims to protect retail investors from potential market volatility and speculative risks. Looking ahead, Sberbank's SberCIB Investment Research unit anticipates that exchange-based crypto trading volumes could rise to between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, eventually reaching around 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87 billion, by 2029. This growth trajectory underscores the increasing institutional interest in crypto assets and the potential for Russia to become a significant player in the global crypto market. The introduction of these regulations is expected to have a profound impact on various stakeholders, including issuers, custodians, payment companies, and developers. For issuers, the new rules provide a clearer legal framework, potentially encouraging more crypto projects to launch within Russia. Custodians and payment companies may see increased demand for their services as more transactions move through regulated channels. Developers could benefit from a more stable and predictable regulatory environment, fostering innovation and growth in the sector. For end users, the regulations promise greater security and transparency, although the purchase caps may limit their ability to fully participate in the market. As Russia's crypto market evolves, it will be crucial to monitor how these regulations are implemented and their impact on both domestic and international crypto trading. Overall, Sberbank's forecast highlights the potential for significant growth in Russia's regulated crypto market, setting the stage for a new era of digital asset trading in the country.