Ryan Bridge: Luxon's leadership is in question, yet again

Here we go again.  For the second time this year, there's a story in the media about National MPs doing the numbers on Luxon. At least one of them is talking to Thomas Coughlan at the Herald. Now, one or two chatting to the media doesn't equal a coup.  But the political calculation is that Luxon is a drag on the party’s polling. Changing horses midstream would not hurt their chances of forming a government, and might provide momentum and a boost to their share of the right voting bloc, and perhaps even some soft centre. They’ll be tempted by the Jacinda transition which saw a poll bump. A circuit-breaker. They’ll be wary of the Judith transition, and many Labour ones before that, which proved fatal. But this is a completely unique situation as this is a party in government. Whoever leads it, leads New Zealand. Luxon’s plea for more party votes is falling on deaf ears and despite expensive advertising campaigns and glossy videos of the PM explaining their fiscal strategy, his comments on the campaign, which is underway in earnest, are drowning out the pre-recorded material. The last week they’ve been in clean-up mode. They can’t afford to spend another three months traipsing round the country with a dustpan and broom.  That would require either better discipline from the current leader or change to a new one.  Which has always been the fly in the ointment for National. There is no Jacinda waiting in the wings.  Bishop and Willis are well-versed debaters who'd perform well on the campaign.  However, Kiwis like reluctant heroes and Bishop looks, rightly or wrongly, anything but.  Willis' near perfect performance handling the initial fuel shock proves her worth but she may be too tied to the cost-of-living woes that have hurt Luxon.  Erica Stanford is the candidate you'd pick if you really wanted to play ball. She's denied wanting it enough, which is key, and is a star performer able to connect with people in a way others have proven incapable.  At this point, this is all just talk. But timing is everything in politics and the fact MPs are briefing journalists twelve weeks out from early voting is destabilising in itself.  Are you better to nip it in the bud or stay the course and hope for brighter days?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.