Ryan Bridge: Shocks can come any time

Tongariro is a National Park for a reason. It's a stunning part of the country.  The fact is currently on fire is worrying not just because it's a fire and you want fires to be put out, but also because of where it's happening.  Ruapehu/central North island's been taking a hammering lately.   It's mills, factories, forestry and tourism.  Hundreds of jobs gone in mill closures. We've had alpine lifts debacle. The mountain's been battling. All this after Covid.  Now, summer bookings are at risk with a decent chunk of the park now a raging fire.  Businesses can only take so much before something breaks. As it has for many since the heady days of free government money during the pandemic.  Today we're reporting 115% increase in insolvencies since 2022.  The problem is not just inflation eating in consumer spending and confidence, but also the sequence of shocks. It's been one thing after another.  Those on the edge get pushed off.  The economy, generally, has had inflation, recession, the weather events, tariffs. Worst conditions in 30 years or more.  What it tells us is that these shocks can come any time, any place, not necessarily with six or seven good years between them.  What's next? The AI bubble bursting? Another war? An oil shock? Another fire ripping through a tourist hot-spot? Take your pick. But don't expect it won't come tomorrow.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.