Ryan Bridge: There's no golden outcome for Luxon's leadership contest

Here's how this morning is going to play out.  At 9:30am, any member of National's caucus can call a no-confidence vote in Luxon's leadership.   The party's constitution calls these guys the Parliamentary Section.   They vote. It's majority rules. If there's a vacancy, i.e. if Luxon is goneburger, then they elect a new leader or leaders.   It's majority rules. So if a majority of MPs want change, then Luxon is gone.  History tells us most leaders would do the honourable thing and stand aside before it gets to this point.   Bolger did it when Shipley led a coup.  Luxon would be no different.   It's possible this could happen before 9:30am.   We could see the PM resign as leader of National ahead of caucus, and effectively as PM in a matter of hours.  If the numbers are not in his favour, the writing's on the wall, he could clear the decks for the caucus to focus on electing his replacement.   I've been speaking to National party MPs and former MPs over the past two weeks.   Some are furious with Luxon's leadership. Own goals. Foot-in-mouth disease. Lack of discipline.   There's a feeling that Key and others in the party have been covering for Luxon's mistakes, hammering the message that any change will mean catastrophe come polling day.   Talk of a Stanford/Mitchell ticket with Bishop as Finance tells you that unlike last time, the leadership hopefuls have organised with a viable alternative – notably excluding Nicola Willis.   Anyone who tells you they know what will happen today is making it up.   As much as 25% of the caucus are set to lose their jobs on current polling.  If Luxon loses his today, it will be a gamble, a roll of the dice, a risk.  If they stick with Luxon, how can you credibly say you're unified behind your leader after two spills in four months?  Leaders confident in their support don't need to call confidence votes in themselves. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.