Ryan Bridge: What Kiwis think of a CGT

Couple of things from this morning's poll on CGT.  Basically, we're evenly split.  As many of us are in favour of Labour's plan as are against it.  The results are interesting, though. The details.  So, more Aucklanders hate it more than the rest of the country.  45% of Aucklanders oppose it. Only 32% support it.  Now, Auckland holds the keys to the kingdom, electorally, as Labour found out in stunning defeat at the polls two years ago.  Auckland lockdowns collapsed their vote. As did the cost of living.  So, if you're National, that's where you focus your anti-CGT campaign.  Its' also interesting, and the Herald piece on the poll makes this point, in areas where people are doing well, where house prices haven't caved. There's more support. In areas feeling poor because their house price has fallen through the floor, they don't like it.  So basically, you have squeezed-middle voters telling you they feel too poor to support another tax.  And so, you end up with this fight between people who like the sound of an idea, and people who feel it will threaten their chance of growing wealth.  Then you've got to ask yourself, will the tax do what it says on the label? Will it pay for millions of extra doctor's visits? Where will these doctor's magically appear from? Does this party have a good track record with delivering on promises, practically if they tell you how much but not really how?  You could look at this poll and think it's a win for capital gains. And it is. Sort of. But there's plenty of fodder for an anti-capital gains campaign which is no doubt being workshopped by some ad agency as we speak. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.