Ryan Griffiths, Syracuse University - The Case Against Breaking Up America Why Secession Would Make Things Worse, Not Better

Would secession work in America?Ryan Griffiths, professor in the Department of Political Science at Syracuse University, looks into why or why not.Faculty Bio:Ryan Griffiths focuses on the dynamics of secession and the study of sovereignty, state systems, and international order. He teaches a variety of courses in international relations. His two recent books include: (1) The Disunited States: Threats of Secession in Red and Blue America and Why They Won’t Work (Oxford University Press, 2025); and (2) Before Colonization: Non-Western States and Systems in the Nineteenth Century (Columbia University Press, 2025, with Charles Butcher). Previously, he taught at both the University of Sydney in Australia and at John Hopkins University. He earned a Ph.D. in international relations and comparative politics at Columbia University in 2010.Transcript:There is a growing interest in secession between Red and Blue America. A 2023 Axios poll found that 20% of Americans support a national divorce, and a 2025 Times/Siena poll found that 64% of Americans think the country is too politically divided to solve the nation’s problems.The key factor driving this interest in secession is polarization. Whether it is the Red-State secessionists, the California Independence Party, or the Texas Nationalists, they all point to unstoppable polarization and political dysfunction as the reason secession is necessary. Secession occurs when part of a sovereign state breaks away to form its own recognized sovereign state. In my research, I argue that while polarization is a serious problem in America, secession is not the solution. Roughly half of secessionist movements turn violent, and most of them fail to gain independence. When they do secede peacefully, it is when specific conditions hold: there is a distinct and regionally concentrated nation, with clear internal borders, and a special administrative status that justifies why that nation can secede when others cannot. None of these conditions hold in America.The attempt to divide America into two or more countries would almost certainly produce great violence. The so-called red and blue populations are intermixed. Trying to unmix that population and would create a cascade of hyper-polarization and ideological conflict. I argue that rather than turning to secession as a solution to America’s problems, the better choice is to target the roots of polarization and seek common ground.Read More:[Oxford University Press] - The Disunited States[Columbia University Press] - Before Colonization Non-Western States and Systems in the Nineteenth Century This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.academicminute.org