Fed Rate Cuts Are Coming — Here's the Data You Need to Watch

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled that more rate cuts could be possible if inflation keeps cooling — but here’s the crucial point: 👉 The Fed doesn’t cut rates based on commentary. 👉 They cut based on incoming data. In this episode, we break down exactly what the Fed and bond markets are watching — and how that flows directly into mortgage rates. We cover: • CPI (Consumer Price Index) • PPI (Producer Price Index) • PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) • Unemployment Rate • ADP Payrolls • Nonfarm Payrolls • Wage Growth Then we connect those data points to the markets that matter: 📉 The 10-Year Treasury 📊 Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) 🏠 Your Mortgage Rate When inflation cools → bonds react. When jobs weaken → yields move. When yields move → mortgage rates follow. If you’re a homeowner, buyer, investor, or realtor — this is how you stay ahead of rate moves. No hype. No politics. Just data. 🔔 GET YOUR RATE & TOOLS 📊 TRU Mortgage Calculator Toolkit (Best Value) Access all professional calculators in one place: 👉 https://friodan.gumroad.com/l/aejabs 📈 RateWatch 2.0 — Get Rate Alerts Be notified when your target rate hits: 👉 https://TheRateUpdate.com/ratewatch 📞 Free Strategy Call Review your scenario — lock vs. float guidance included: 👉 https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05 ❓ Ask Dan a Mortgage Question Submit your scenario for a future show: 👉 https://TheRateUpdate.com/contact 📝 Apply — One App • One Credit Pull • 30+ Lenders 👉 https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register 🧮 MORTGAGE CALCULATORS 🏠 Home Affordability Calculator 👉 https://friodan.gumroad.com/l/lyxvnp 💳 Refinance & Debt Consolidation Analyzer 👉 https://friodan.gumroad.com/l/ovvwug ⏳ Cost-of-Waiting™ Calculator 👉 https://friodan.gumroad.com/l/rjtvn 💵 Mortgage Cost & Break-Even Calculator 👉 https://friodan.gumroad.com/l/tgvrz 📺 FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram — https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok — https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate Facebook — https://facebook.com/therateupdate LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/danfrio X (Twitter) — https://twitter.com/therateupdate ⚖️ COMPLIANCE Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 Equal Housing Lender | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 The views expressed are solely those of the host and do not represent PBT Bancorp or its affiliates. Educational & entertainment purposes only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. ⏱️ CHAPTERS — Correct for 9:22 Video 00:00 Opening & Fed Signal on Rates 00:40 Fed Doesn’t Move on Opinion — Data Matters 01:50 CPI, PPI & What They Reveal 03:05 PCE — The Fed’s Preferred Measure 04:05 Jobs Data — Unemployment & Payrolls 05:25 Wage Growth & Inflation Pressure 06:10 10-Year Treasury & Bond Reaction 07:00 Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Link 08:20 What This Means for Your Mortgage Rate 09:05 Final Takeaways & Next Steps