The Rate Update —Here's Why the Fed Can't Cut Rates (Yet)

The Rate Update — Here's Why the Fed Can't Cut Rates (Yet) The Federal Reserve meets today — and the big question for homeowners and homebuyers is simple: Why can’t the Fed cut rates yet? Even if inflation is cooling in some areas, the Fed still has a problem. Core inflation, mortgage rates, Treasury yields, oil prices, jobs data, and market expectations all matter. And today may be especially important because this could be one of Jerome Powell’s final Fed meetings as Chair. In this episode, we break down what the Fed is likely to do, what Powell may say after the meeting, why the market may move more on his press conference than the rate decision itself, and what it could mean for mortgage rates, homebuyers, homeowners, and anyone trying to decide whether to lock, float, buy, wait, or refinance. Today’s key question: 👉 If inflation is cooling, why won’t the Fed cut rates yet? We’ll look at: • The Federal Reserve decision • Why Powell’s press conference matters • Inflation excluding food and energy • Mortgage rates and Treasury yields • Why the Fed may stay cautious • What homebuyers should watch next • Why rate cuts do not automatically mean lower mortgage rates • What this means if you are buying or refinancing No hype. Just real data. CHAPTERS 00:00 The Fed Meeting Homebuyers Need to Watch 00:35 Why the Fed Probably Can’t Cut Yet 01:20 Powell’s Final Fed Meeting? 02:10 Why the Press Conference Matters More Than the Decision 03:05 Inflation Is Cooling — But Is It Enough? 04:10 Core Inflation, Food, Energy, and the Fed’s Problem 05:05 Trump, Powell, and the Next Fed Era 06:00 What Kevin Warsh Could Mean for Future Rate Policy 07:00 Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Follow the Fed Directly 08:10 Treasury Yields, Bonds, and Mortgage Rate Movement 09:15 What Homebuyers Should Do Right Now 10:15 Should You Lock or Float? 11:10 What Homeowners and Refinancers Should Watch Next 12:00 Final Takeaway: Why the Fed Is Stuck 🔗 NEXT STEPS 🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register 📅 Want to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultation https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05 ✉️ Have Questions? Contact / Ask Dan https://www.therateupdate.com/contact TOP RESOURCES 📉 Track Mortgage Rates Automatically → https://rw2.therateupdate.com/ 🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center → https://command.therateupdate.com/ 💳 TRU Debt Optimizer → https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/ 🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools → https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations 📊 Credit Monitoring (SmartCredit) → https://www.smartcredit.com/?PID=42980 📈 Free Credit Scores (Credit Karma) → https://www.creditkarma.com/lp/free-credit-scores-v12aff?adcopy=0&adcampaign=core_acq_awin Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio. I break down mortgage rates, housing, inflation, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and the economic news that impacts homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market. My goal is simple: help you understand what’s happening, why it matters, and what you should do next. Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing lenders, or trying to understand where rates may go next, you’re in the right place. FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube → https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram → https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok → https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate — DISCLAIMER — Dan Frio is a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico (NMLS #246527) with TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp (NMLS #257781), an Equal Housing Lender. This channel and all content published by Dan Frio are provided for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this video, description, comments, calculators, tools, emails, websites, or linked content should be construed as an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, or investment advice. Mortgage approvals, loan terms, interest rates, down payment requirements, and program availability are subject to change without notice and depend on borrower qualifications, including but not limited to credit score, income, assets, employment, property type, occupancy, appraisal, title, underwriting approval, and current lending guidelines. All opinions expressed are solely those of Dan Frio and do not necessarily reflect the views of PBT Bancorp, its affiliates, or any other institution. Use of this channel, watching videos, commenting, messaging, scheduling a consultation, or submitting information does not create a client relationship. All examples, payment scenarios, savings illustrations, and mortgage comparisons are for demonstration purposes only and should be independently verified. Not all borrowers will qualify. Equal Housing Lender. TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 Dan Frio NMLS #246527 Equal Housing Lender