S9 Ep58: Iran’s Nuclear Future and Why Bombs Won’t Stop it with Joe Cirincione

Matt is joined by nonproliferation expert Joe Cirincione to unpack what the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran actually achieved—and what they didn’t. They discuss the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program, why military action alone can’t stop a country from getting the bomb, and what a viable diplomatic path forward might look like. Joe breaks down the technical realities of uranium enrichment and covert weapons development, explores whether Iran now has the intent as well as the capability to build a nuclear weapon, and explains how this crisis risks pushing the world back toward nuclear anarchy. They also consider what future proliferators might be learning from the Iran case, and what comes next for the global arms control regime.Subscribe and share to stay ahead in the world of intelligence, geopolitics, and current affairs.Follow Joe on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/joecirin.bsky.socialFollow Joe’s Substack: https://joecirincione.substack.comPlease share this episode using these linksAudio: https://pod.fo/e/2f82e0YouTube: https://youtu.be/IFJAPL9dg4AAdditional reading for the episode"Iran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation Regime" by Joseph Rodgers | Center for Strategic & International Studies: https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-and-changing-character-nonproliferation-regime"Disruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran Nuclear Strikes" by Bailey Schiff | CSIS Next-Generation Nuclear Network: https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/disruption-or-dismantlement-diverging-assessments-of-iran-nuclear-strikes/"Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities" by David Albright, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities"Going for the Bomb: Part I, Pathways and Timelines" by David Albright | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/going-for-the-bomb-part-i-pathways-and-timelines"Going for the Bomb: Part II, Tasks to Make a Crude Nuclear Weapon" by David Albright and Andrea Stricker | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/going-for-the-bomb-part-ii-tasks-to-make-a-crude-nuclear-weapon"Iran Suspends Cooperation With UN Nuclear Watchdog" by Erika Solomon and Sanam Mahoozi | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-iaea.html"Pentagon Says US Strike Delayed Iran’s Nuclear Program by Up to Two Years" by Lara Seligman and Michael R. Gordon | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-says-u-s-strike-delayed-irans-nuclear-program-by-up-to-two-years-8d51eb81"What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?" by Kali Robinson | Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-dealSupport Secrets and SpiesBecome a “Friend of the Podcast” on Patreon for £3/$4: https://www.patreon.com/SecretsAndSpiesBuy merchandise from our shop: https://www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/60934996Subscribe to our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDVB23lrHr3KFeXq4VU36dgFor more information about the podcast, check out our website: https://secretsandspiespodcast.comConnect with us on social mediaBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/secretsandspies.bsky.socialInstagram: https://instagram.com/secretsandspiesFacebook: https://facebook.com/secretsandspiesSpoutible: https://spoutible.com/SecretsAndSpiesFollow Chris and Matt on Bluesky:https://bsky.app/profile/chriscarrfilm.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/mattfulton.netSecrets and Spies is produced by F & P LTD.Music by Andrew R. BirdPhotos by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto & Hossein Beris/Middle East ImagesSecrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.