Sam Atkinson: Is the Siberian Boreal Forest nearing a Tipping Point?

Sam Atkinson, BSc Geography, joins us to discuss his research project "Is the Siberian Boreal Forest nearing a Tipping Point?"AbstractIncreasing air temperatures, drought and wildfire is impacting the health of the Siberian Boreal Forest, with the boreal biome being predicted to be replaced by grasslands/steppe. Multiple scholars have referred to this transition as a 'tipping point' however few studies have tested whether any signals of a tipping point are present. Using remote sensing, the health of vegetation in the Siberian Boreal Forest, over the past 30 Summers was assessed. Statistics were calculated from quantitative data to determine whether the early warning signals of a tipping point were present. The results suggested that the state of the system in Eastern Siberia is closer to tipping than in the West and Central Siberian Boreal forest, with minimal early warning signals present in West and Central Siberia. However, these indicators cannot be used to predict a timeframe for tipping or quantify a likelihood of tipping, yet simply give indications of 'the state of play', they would be useful to be used (subjectively) alongside modelled predictions. With regards to the SDGs, the potential for the system to collapse and change state, has implications for Goal 15, and the release of terrestrial carbon which is currently stored in boreal forests has implications for Goal 13 and knock on impacts for Goal 15. There is the potential for a decline in species richness, as a changing climate causes competition between species to decline, with the Siberian Larch becoming unable to survive with warmer, wetter conditions. In addition to this, if conditions become too wet for the other main species, Siberian Pine, this is where the system will be replaced by non-boreal vegetation.Episode Guest: Sam Atkinson, BSc GeographyEpisode Host: Prof Simon KempProducer and Editor: Libby Kale