And now below post-pods to the low post podcast on a Thursday morning where a team I've talked about in a sides Little conversations here and there but they haven't been the centerpiece for a while because they got off to such a good start They've been the Vegas championship favorites since losing the finals and you just sort of had this tendency to like yeah They're gonna look up and down Let's lean out They'll be there when we need to be talk about it and that's the Boston Celtics Brian's Calibreini live from Minneapolis, Minnesota where the Celtics eat out a kind of ugly win over the Minnesota turbo wolves last night to go to 48 and 22. How are you sir? I'm good and um What it was a very strange game give something credit though typically when they're not hitting their shots They don't play that hard defensively this game. They played you know pretty hard wired wire It just wasn't a pretty offensive night.
Yeah Marcus smart who has really struggled since his ankle injury a couple months ago in January Had a couple of Marcus smart plays late in the game a steal in the post I think it was against Nas Reed Yeah, then it's like a jump ball situation where it's just like Marcus Martin Marcus smart things look the Celtics are 48 and 22 They are still Number four in offense and the last time we talked they had the greatest offense the world had ever seen so we'll get to that You know, he's just passed them in the offensive efficiency rating scale. Yeah, Kings. No Kings are number one by far They just Billy just passed Boston into the number three spot Boston is also fourth in defense. I believe they're the only team at the top five in both Which is why they've been the biggest favorites all year long and tied for first with the Cleveland Cavaliers in total point differential Scout before we get out to the Celtics I just can't I just can't the numbers are been telling me all year that the Cleveland Cavaliers are a title contender along with Boston Philly, I just can't get there even like I'm doing this research for the pot like time for number one.
Oh Cleveland That's right Cleveland's number one. There's just something about Their offense and their spacing that I just I just don't and they're inexperienced I was I just can't I can't quite get there. Can you get there? Are you like worried about the Cavs?
Not you mean worried as in a team that I don't want to face like they could beat Boston four times and said they played Boston really well They'd be the first two games and they're like crazy games So they check all the boxes for a championship level team, you know what they don't do exactly don't win Close games on the road. There's your problem right there. They had five more wins you would cosign them I think they're like they're like a poultry you got to look at clutch stats on the roller clutch games on the road They just can't figure it out and get it done And that's why they're they'll lose a lot of those close games So they had a situation against really they should have won that Philly game that at the end of the game You know Philly was up in the NBA foul whatever but that game in particular They had a good lead they get away from what kind of got them there They stopped going to you know like like a ball movement playing through the post and then all of a sudden I get everything It's hard and they can't go to a level on the road. I Just don't think they have enough shooting yet around the two star guards and I'm openly is making the leap It's not a leap.
It's more like a a gradual rising jump on offense like he's starting to become a really good scorer and passer I think the shooting piece will come last and I just feels a little early But again, they could prove me wrong and the numbers say they can win the whole goddamn thing Boston Our mutual friend Bill Simmons tweeted after the Rockets loss Which I think just that was that was a that was a stinger for him because he said some back and forth with jail and green and And some Rockets people and the Rockets stink and and they beat the Celtics at home in Houston rather He tweeted that people something about the Celtics 2023 situation is more dire than people realize Dyer was the word that bill used and it and Bill knows lots of people within the Celtics So he knows stuff he doesn't tweet stuff like that a little bit lightly obviously his heart his heart and soul are invested in the team So he's gonna ride the roller coaster of emotions more than you or I might But dire that word just jumped out at me because I just I have a tendency when these teams with track records go through kind of like Yeah, there's six and six and they're less well, whatever to just say it's fine like malaise some injuries, you know Long season people are tired, but then you zoom out and you're like, okay here here if you believe it's dire Here are the two reasons you believe it's dire number one Boston is 13 and 10 in their last 23 games their offense in that stretch ranks I think 17th in the league So the offense is what undid them almost undid them against Miami and did undo them against the Warriors and the finals Along with obviously the Warriors being amazing and here it is again Sputtering and we can talk about how that's sputtering his manifested itself So that's one and number two just more fundamentally no walkies like 25 and two in its last 27 games Philly is surging through a very hard schedule and and threatening the Celtics for the number two seed in the east The Celtics have a much easier schedule Philly has a ton of road games left to make up So Boston is still the favorites for number two, but all of a sudden They they don't even look like the clear favorites in their conference anymore That that surrounding environment plus the offense is I think where where dire is coming from and then just some weird stuff like Grant Williams minutes Blake Griffin is now like the backup center. It just feels like there's a little instability How are you feeling about the team? Well, I know like a lot of just kicked off with the 28 point blown lead to Brooklyn And then they follow that up with the blown lead to to nix and blown lead to cav So we've seen that and then a lot of people kind of overreacted that type of stuff I'm telling you that they got one problem. They just don't play that hard when they're comfortable That's like the issue they they don't guard at nearly the clip that they used to guard at they used to be Everyone's fighting to be the best defensive player on the team Like I was a good rivalry like tatum said I know like I'm the best defender on the team You know that Jalen Brown I'm the best defender and Marcus smart I'm the defensive player of the year like used to be a thing they used to take pride in guarding the ball They used to take pride in shutting down, you know the best players I actually believe that there's they have moments of that but they're far from far from a 48 minute a game team that used to sit down Defensively and just really really worked on that side Then the second part is and it was so funny Like you must have like a like a big time jinx with your podcast I went on your podcast and I talked about the Celtics ball movement And I talked about how they could bend the defense multiple times with multiple guys of driving kicking and it's like you And you're to stop that you have to be so locked in to your coverages of appropriate help and went to and went out to And it was like almost overnight.
They got a little lazy offensively as in like I don't really need to do all that extra stuff I don't really need to drive the ball two or three times I could just get up and rise up and make this shot or I could just kind of force the shot over a guy at the rim and that went away So those are fundamental things in the NBA you have to do to be great Yeah, you go to the Bucks that you said 25 and 2 I'm just making it's something like that whatever it is It's crazy. Yeah, so they they move it they drive and kick and they compromise the defense They share it and they get after it defensively like all of a sudden you see through holiday picking up full court It's like wow, I can't believe how he could do this and carry a team offensively So I really think like people are bringing up a lot of stuff like drama Jalen Brown's unhappy like everyone brings up the Wait, is that being brought up? No, like someone brought that up because he said at the all-star game people I have to make sacrifices so they spin that into Jalen Brown's making sacrifice and he's not happy I'm like that's not true. He loves being in Boston and he said I have to make sacrifices which by the way So does every other team in the NBA know what Jalen Brown's you know what Jalen Brown's sacrifice has been and I think it's a real thing He he did the thing sometime last year where he just sort of nodded his head and said I'm the number two guy here Like I'm said and I'm gonna have to be okay with that like this dude is this dude above me on the totem pole He's better than me and I'm okay with that.
I will say on Jalen Brown real fast as Tatum slumps from the floor. What do you think Tatum is shooting on pull up threes this year by the way off the dribble threes take a guess? Hmm 28 29% As he slumps a little bit you still you know gonna be fourth or fifth in Bp Jalen Brown is making a little bit of a late season all NBA push and that's a big deal if he makes all NBA Because of the super max eligibility maybe we can go over it later But it's also gonna depend on like what position he's eligible at so people through the all NBA guards Right and he's been eligible. I think at guard in the past I think five guard spots of the six are just locked in in whatever order you want to put them in step I know he's miss 26 games.
He's step curry. He's gonna make a limb be a SGA Dame Luca and Donna Mitchell James a lock dude names averaging 32 again. You forgot you forgot the lock. I'm sorry We're very box is a lock you might then then that's all six then that's all six or I don't know it How many games did they deliver miss?
Dame is missed. I think 13 games. Oh, yeah And by the way Fox Fox then makes another game winning shot last night a lot You then that's it then there then the guard spots are done and the forward conversation if he's eligible and forward gets a little interesting Yeah, every all the forwards are missing games all the forwards are hurt. He should make it well It's gonna depend on his eligibility because you know it and Durant has played 42 games That's if he doesn't play again.
That's half a season You can't make all the LeBron is miss and I think the rate will come back I think the right will come back a late late late in the regular season. So you might maybe get some 45 Those two guys can't make all the a LeBron played 47 games that somewhere. There's got to be a line. We're like even LeBron Can't make all NBA playing 47 games.
There's a line somewhere anyway. We're off track. Yeah defense defense Yeah, they just don't guard like they're just like they're disconnected into understanding I think that they're the team that thinks it's a long season and we're just gonna flip a switch and we're gonna guard I really believe that's what they think so here's what's drives me crazy about analysis at this time of year And I did this with Denver earlier this year When the good team when the best teams in the conference each conference the number one teams all year have been bossed in Denver When they slump this is half the analysis is well, they're just not playing hard It's boring. They're not playing harder and I agree with you They've made a lot of uncharacteristic errors on defense and they have all year like they just like even less like it gets Minnesota Two guys go with Kyle Anderson Rude go bare gets a dunk Mike Conley gets a wide open three on a split action when Jason Tatum just forgets and he's guarding Mike Conley just Communications that are not characteristic of them even so they're sixth in defense in that 23 game stretch where they're 13 and 10 So like their defense has been fine fine The other thing is when did why is it always just effort like maybe why can't it be like something is actually wrong with the team or or The mental effort required to play the kind of offense that you're talking about like to search out the right matchups to keep it moving That takes mental tenacity and effort and if it's not there consistently Why isn't that why is that just something to dismiss as a non problem that will correct itself when the games matter?
Why have the Celtics earned the right to just be like we'll just get into our habits when it matters is a fight There's one final strip and a bunch of deep playoff runs before that have they earned that because the bucks are I'm going to the bucks right now the box offense Which has been crap all year with Middleton out is clicking now the ball movement is clicking and you mentioned true holiday I think one of the big benefits of the season for Milwaukee by accident is with Middleton out drew holidays had to do more and More on ball stuff and I think he's gotten more comfortable in his pick and roll with Giannis in his step back three And all of a sudden he and Middleton are gonna be like code number one ball handlers on the plays Giannis's now I think that's healthy for them. But like what I just like Boston's offense 17th over 23 games right now It just doesn't look good And we're just gonna chalk it all up to like well They don't care and when they care it'll be fine. Okay, so Understand you talk about Jason Tatum and the pull up jumpers pull up three to twenty twenty nine percent twenty nine percent so You're starting out like the rich like Giannis is relentless relentless every possession. He is relentless He doesn't care so when you're skilled like Tatum and Brown they always have the option of just saying you know what?
Let me just pull this jumper I don't need to be relentless and run open. Oh, are you going to are you gonna go into the honest? It has no bag argument now is this is when you're skilled when you're skilled? Oh Yeah, yeah, no, no, I think it's better to be relentless and just like go go go cat cat cat cat cat cat cat cat I think it puts like I don't think people understand the amount of pressure that that guy puts on team defenses So in Brooklyn is wide open for three, but when you're doing that over and over again now teams have to adjust you So this doesn't settle you know they because those guys can get a shot off anytime they want to see a high percentage You know great.
You're shooting 58% on twos this year. Yeah, there's been range has been off the charts and all that so it's just like it's a different Offensive profile. So yeah, like the bucks are gonna get more open shots are gonna get but the Celtics have like better offensive players outside of outside of You know, like you just wind them all up if this has more count this guy more town this guy's better decision It's just across the board But when you attack that rim and you're getting to that restricted area and you're punishing people there it changes things It makes life easier. So I like I don't have an answer for you I don't know if the Celtics are gonna live in that restricted area and you know like without Rob Williams We don't really have a last line of defense back there and we're really getting like burned by that We're now hoping to switch out on the perimeter and we're giving up all these points on the on the you know Offensive glass second chance point.
So I just think like when you're giving up points in the paint We're giving up their restriction area restricted area and you're not getting there. It's really hard to win Did you watch Clippers warriors last night? I've watched the first half. I'm gonna watch the second half Oh, you guys watch the second half Curry goes nuclear and they can't win why because you watch kills him on the glass So we got Steph Curry like all-time great well rush more made We bet you can play one twenty nine and if you can't down you can't win they get they lose that game by 10 because they can't rebound You have it's this game.
We talk about oh, yeah the skill this it's a guard driven It still comes down to restriction area and rebounding the ball when Rob plays the subject start by far the best defensive rebound percentage team in the NBA And when he doesn't we're like 27. So that's why like those little things they become drama and all there's dire problem No, it's defensive rebounding. That's where it all starts and then we go on the offensive end It's being relentless and we talked about that when I'm talking about that last time the Celtics were relentless at driving kicking and attacking They're not like that anymore now. I believe they could switch but I don't know that for a first-urgent When I watch the Celtics every game I watch my litmus test is where's the worst perimeter defender on the other team Who's he on and do they use that guy in in the possession?
And so in Houston I was like alright where's I mean I don't mean like where's jailing green like jailing green a lot of Times was the weakest link on the floor for you sting Shen goon didn't play so they didn't have like the slow-footed center to attack last night It was my calmly just undersized and in every game I watch There are just too many possessions where they're just letting those guys hang out in the corner on Malcolm Brogdon and Derek way and Marcus smart And when they bring those guys into the action and one of my frustrates with the boss in the season is like they have not used Brogdon as a screener at all and he's a really good screener He had a great pick and roll chemistry with Giannis as a screener and Milwaukee When they get those guys into the action ball screens pin downs all balls up and they get either a switch or a rotation And their best guys get it with an advantage and then they attack that advantage like right off the catch That's the kind of stuff you're talking about that's when they're really hard to guard Sometimes you don't even need to give the ball to the guy with the mismatch They had a possession last night gets Minnesota where they did some off-ball screening action with Conley Got the jail and Brown Conley mismatch the wolves overloaded to stop them from throwing the ball to jail Brown and the stuff is just like cool We don't even need to throw in the ball now you've exposed gaps all over the floor drive kick drive kick somebody gets an open three and When the Celtics are diligent in playing that way they can win the championship They have not been diligent playing that way for like two and a half months now They were not diligent about playing that way against Miami and Golden State and I think fatigue both mentally and physically Had something to do with that You can speak to this more as a player like you talk about how Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum are so good and so skilled that they can just default into like we don't need to do all that stuff like I'm Jason Tatum. It takes a certain I mean I maybe you can speak this more than me I don't know but you talk to players and coaches the level of mental strain and focus it takes to play that way 95 possessions a Game or did 80 half-court possessions a game is like a real thing It's it's it's effort. It's draining but you have to do it and I worry that it's not just as simple as well They don't care and when they care they'll do it like it takes real work to do that right? It does it does no you're like that's not that's like a that's any player right?
Yeah, man I just want to run we need to run and you watch the team they'll run for four minutes like no No, no when you watch like the all-time great running teams. They're going 48 minutes They're running on makes they're running on mists. They're running on free throws makes free throws miss free throws They're running every time so everybody says that but they don't do it the best team like the Celtics had a stretch They were really good, but you remember San Antonio the year after they lost to Miami 24 team. You couldn't keep all of them They never did it was ridiculous.
It was ridiculous How do they work and once in a while once in a while pop a call punch from Tim Duncan he's or I didn't go back to just like the ball Well, that is a good example of a team going like water wire all year all game every possession doing that I would say he when the Celtics are at their best It's a controlled chaos It is a driving kick mentality with a little more emphasis to get the ball to Tatum and Brown Like if you have one and they have one you probably should one touch it You should be a problem even if you feel like you have one if you know that they also could like play with an emphasis to get those guys The ball but I don't like the pin down to get my conley and everybody knows it's coming I think as bright as they are as players. I think the world of these guys from IQ standpoint I thought that from the very beginning of the season I think that now as good as they are I think they could play fast I think they can play random and I think they can play with an emphasis to get the ball to Tatum and when Tatum It's playing off the ball and he makes two in a row I don't mind you're 28% pull up three, you know what I mean? Don't search for you getting going on that shot like let's do a little heat check after we got it going because let's be real Can anybody stop Tatum on him driving a closeout? There's not a player in the league or a team in the lead if he's catching the ball off of a move off of a compromise defense Can stop that guy and I'd say the same thing about Jalen Brown They're fine on the isolation and make some special their way their ability to do that But what they're really good at is attacking closeouts and they've always been good at that yet They go away from that because I think like fatigue has settled in now habits or fatigue their habits are being built this way Now are is it fatigued and they'll snap out of it Boston Celtic fans hope so but sometimes habits pull through and that's a little bit What I'm worried about yeah habits is the right word and by the way, I think you just absolutely nailed it You could say this about every team.
Maybe maybe not quite every team I think it's very true of the Celtics their offense is at its best when it lives in this world between scripted and Improv and like sometimes it's like scripted could just be out of a timeout We're gonna start in this alignment, right? We're gonna start in this alignment and this is gonna be the first cut and after that you guys you guys just flow and and there If you over-scripted it doesn't work if you but sometimes I feel like they do need a nudge and like hey that guy's on the floor Like maybe just Marcus just like we've set a random flare screen over here to do this at that But if you over-scripted it doesn't work you mentioned Rob Williams That's the other reason to worry about the Celtics honestly, it's the reason they were searching out centers at the trade deadline It's the reason they were thinking about giving up a whole lot more for Yaka Pertil than they gave up for Mike Muscala Who's not playing anymore? It's it's because there's a fear internally that Robert Well, if it takes 24 playoff games to win the finals or whatever it ends up taking There's just a fear that he's inevitably gonna play 17 of them and miss seven and they're a completely different team when he's on the floor And I'm starting to think you know when we talked about their offense earlier in the season Rob wasn't playing and they're playing five out with Orford at center and just destroying teams with their spacing and they're cutting their back door cuts There's so much space on floor anytime. There's a cut it's a dunk and I've we talked about like it's gonna be interesting to see how Rob Who's pangs in the dunker spot and yeah and clutters it up a little bit is gonna is gonna fit in I mean obviously they're elite regardless I'm starting to almost think they need him on offense more than they need him on defense because they just have no rim pressure at all When he's not on the floor and if you look at how their offense is changed in this 23 game stretch Like what are they doing worse than they were doing before before when they were number one in offense the metrics across the board are Almost exactly the same including the frequency of their shots at the rim Which is very very low two things have changed they're getting to the line even less They just never get to the line ever if they're 25th I think a free throw rate 28th in this stretch and they're mid and they're dead last in mid-range shooting in the last 23 And so that you can just say well, that's just kind of random and lucky little it'll correct itself the more I watch them The more I'm like yeah, Rob is an incredible defense player incredible his shop blocking changes everything is rebounding you mentioned I just feel like they're now lacking force to the point that it's not quite a crisis But just give me someone who is going north south at all times give me someone who's gonna draw fouls who's gonna get offensive rebounds I really think they need him back kind of ASAP to reinvigorate that part of their offense almost more than their defense Which sounds a little zany when I say it out loud, but that's kind of how I feel no Rob the Rob thing is even strange for me, and I'm like looking at numbers and stats and everything like that So go figure this one and I don't I don't have an answer for this be honest with you So when Robin and I'll play together they're off the charts like they're net rating and their defense rating and their offense are rating It's amazing But when Robin out and the starters from last year play they're not off the charts are actually just like like negative net rating I can give you this I can give you this that's it doesn't make like it doesn't make sense to me What what is the combination that works with Rob Williams because I don't I Want that combination to work that starting group because they were awesome last year But I don't nothing in my eye has told me that that combination has worked so far And I know it's like small sample size or anything like that, but it feels rigid It feels like it lacks low and it just doesn't feel like I thought it would it would be and I don't know They haven't they haven't played I mean they haven't Come on in with me finals last year they dominated the NBA last year so white there's no carryover They didn't dominate it.
They didn't dominate the playoffs last year. I agree agree. They dominated the regular season last year But there's no carryover so here are the numbers the starting five smart the J's Horford Williams is played only 81 minutes the entire season I mean that's like nothing you have garbage time line up sitable I know they're minus 27 in 81 minutes the same group With Derek White in Marcus Marcis place So white the J's Horford Rob is plus 59 and 67 minutes plus a point a minute now that again That's nothing six minutes is nothing and you know bill is big on this They got a benchmark a smart late in games for Derek White actually that's an interesting conversation because you know When they when they traded for Derek White I remember thinking and writing and saying that closing five of white smart Tatum Brown Rob is gonna be incredible and it didn't end up being a big part of their team because Horford has been so good Yeah, and Grant was so vital to their play-off running by the way I think they need to start playing Grant Moore I know he's dealing with a little elbow thing and his shootings been off Philly and Milwaukee are like the teams where they need Grant Williams the most and I mean Miami to like you need your size size size any size and then I looked at what is what is like Brogdon White Brown Tatum What does that look like those four because you know Brogdon's been outstanding all year too They've only played like 66 minutes together the whole season those four guys forget the five guys so I agree with you there's like some lineup tinkering to be done and You know, maybe the answer ends up being white smart Tatum Brown Horford and a little less Rob But I was super intrigued by that Rob at the five is the only big guy on the floor lineup But we just haven't seen a lot of that and like they have 12 games left like the playoffs are here I just the Rob thing is just it's just they just need them to play because I don't think I don't think I picked the bucks To win the title before the season I picked the bucks to win the title now I think they're I just am terrified of be honest and I'm terrified of how they look right now The Celtics are not gonna get out of the East without Rob Williams being a big part of the team sure sure I don't I don't so when you when you have a small sample size people use that cliche But what it really means like you have to kind of unfold all those lineups Who are you playing against where are you playing? What is your current situation?
Are you coming off of back-to-back? Who's coming is a guy been out for two weeks and now he's in and how that you know, there's so many scenarios That's why you use the term small sample size, but I just the I guess when those guys are together There's like something missing those two bit no matter that just that you're talking about Horford Rob No, you're amazing together matter. You're talking about the full group. Okay.
Yeah, it's like I don't know if it's a shooter Or it's more shooting like and I would be curious if it was like the Jay's Houser Robin and out like I'd be curious of all the groups with with those two guys or maybe just one of the J's And I'm not saying to end in a game because when you end a game you have to balance out defensively You have to think if you have a Joel and beat out there you need a mark of smart out there I know it sounds weird But you kind of do because he provides switching He is his help is amazing when you go in not to go like there's a lot of things that play into that But it's just I am the one concern I have with this Forget the I think they're gonna play a lot harder. I think they'll play more random I think they'll play with pace and space. I believe all that Random is fine as long as the random is like aimed in the right places. I think yeah control I call it control chaos right like you like you could play random in screens and the ball has to find him in brown and then Um, but but ultimately I just I wonder what the end result is gonna be with all these lines I'm like what do you need out there?
What kind of shooting you have out there? And you but I agree with you from the Rob sample you gotta have Rob Williams out there if you don't have Rob I don't see how you rebound with the bucks I don't see how you control that restricted area against that team without Rob out there The bucks are too good right now and and ascending and clicking at the right time And the Sixers are sending and clicking at the right time weirdly it feels it feels like the Sixers putting maxi back in the starting five It feels like now they've settled that question and they're they're kind of figuring out a more holistic identity of what their team is Even weirdly while Tucker and Harris at the three and the four or the four that really both fours are not giving them very much And I'm Tucker's never gonna give you much offense But Tobias is in a big slump But there's three guard lineups with like harden maxi Melton or you know, Milton last night off the bench are starting to click to it just feels like they're they figured out some things about who they Want to play when in the games their rotation both those teams Look I was super high on Philly before the season I had build on my podcast preseason in my first big question from him was why can't fill in the title this year? They have all the ingredients to win the title I still think that you know if harden shows up in the biggest games I that those two teams are so good that Boston needs to be going at full throttle to get out to get out of the second round I mean if they don't have home court in the second round that could be an issue too. I Know I know I know I know I know I know I know I know I know I know it can happen I know it can happen in my mind When I do the matchup game, I don't see that team beating that well They have more answers for harden than anyone in the NBA defensively.
Yes Nobody has any answers for MB anymore. Nobody like like Grant might be their best MB defender now or for it's been pretty good too But those guys there's no answer now. There's no like okay. We could just leave Grant Williams on an island with Joel and beat No, that's like death by dunk like it's not gonna happen.
No, I understand but It's a bad match up for them like they like to be all the better chance I think of being the bucks and they do it themselves is it the small guards like there's always gonna be a place for a Tatum around to pick at like is that part of it for you too? I think I think Billy can't compromise the defensive So they can do it with the beat but with guys and then be operation in the top and the high post has been it's It's changed his entire career. I mean his career was already going towards a super first bout Hall of Fame Obviously, but migrating from like the block to the nail has he's not there's no answer anymore No, and Pete this like when you watch James Harden Why does he struggle so much with catching shoe? I don't get it.
It's starting to change now I did see that but don't I think I think harden's been I had harden on my all-star team this year I think harden now people have now come around like oh maybe you should have been more in the all-star conversation I think he's been great after like the first ten games of the season. He's been outstanding So I think the last four weeks it must have been brought up to him like I think it's been brought up to him like monthly Well, I don't think I don't think anyone in Houston was like I don't think anyone I think he could just do whatever he wanted in Houston. Nobody was gonna be like hey James I'm the franchise. I think it's been a regular topic of conversation Let's put it this one out when I wrote in my 10 things column a couple months ago three months ago probably not about harden Just refusing to take catching two three.
Yeah, I got pinged from a lot of people who have been around harden in the NBA Like dude, it's been driving us crazy for so long. But it's starting to change Yeah, I did I did notice like the last three weeks even and what he has done if he stepped off the line a little bit So now he's like has no problem catching shooting from a little bit deeper But like he popped the extra like your jab like and he just got you a wide open shot Why can't you shoot it? You know that's the easier shot you make it harder But I just don't think it's a great matchup for Philly, you know Like listen things change really quickly nowadays and if Rob Williams doesn't play it changes everything I get all that but I've seen Philly so many times against the Celtics wrong thinking This is what's going to happen and they don't get over the hump And I just don't understand it They don't it's like they could play good for a quarter two quarter half whatever but eventually it's like they're gonna lose the lead And that's just what happened this and it's unfortunate because I really like doc and I like I like how they're a more He made this team up big strong physical guy. I like that from a from that standpoint and I think they can beat the bucks I know it's crazy.
I believe that but I don't think they could beat the Celtic so I About two three I just I don't worry about that I just worry about Milwaukee I don't think it's crazy to say they can beat the bucks I just don't I think they're that talented and it's just big a matter of hardens showing up in the biggest games We're in the other teams being awesome, but I don't I don't think that's like an off the wall The numbers say it's not the Phillies a straight-up set up and all right well Boston's got 12 games left one This is the last game on this road trip. You want to know? No Portland salt lake sack and then back home. Okay, three Oh sack.
That's gonna be fun. That's a fun game Who knew alright Brian Scalbrini just does awesome work all over the place most notably as the as the analyst on the Celtics teams with sometimes like orman sometimes Sean grandi and sometimes Kendrick Perkins and you're the play by play guy the other Dited Houston jack of all trades gal. Thank you, sir. You got it.
We'll talk later All right Let's wrap up the week by going out West for the most jumbled conference in recent memory And I needed someone who could go into fancy databases that I don't know how to use and come out with numbers that show me How unprecedented or is it unprecedented to have a conference where everybody is so close together particularly for to 12 or 14 A conference with no dominant team really a league with no dominant team at least in terms of net rating and point differential compared What we usually see and that is Seattle's finest Kevin Pelton. How are you sir? I'm doing well. Thanks for having me.
We got to start with a couple quick news items Lonzo ball according to Woj and I think I think the Bulls as well is going to need a third knee surgery on his left knee It is going to be apparently a cartilage replacement surgery that could knock him out for the entirety of next season Which is just an absolute gut punch. I mean look we can talk about the Bulls and what does this mean for the Bulls But I don't know balls only 25 like that. It seems like he's older than that That surprised me when already yesterday and for any kind of someone who loves fun Selfless team first basketball. He's always been a guy that you just gravitate to in terms of his style to play It's a plane Kevin.
I will I've told this story before I will never forget it was November 15th 2021 Ions ago it seems I was at what was then Staples Center really was always going to be called Staples Center on the low post podcast for Bulls Lakers Early last season the first season of this Lonzo Vooch Demar Levine quartet now LeBron didn't play LeBron was out there. He got AD got Russ You know so how he puts the Lakers and the Bulls absolutely like clowned the Lakers I was on press roll like two rows up Staples has a good press seats and the difference in speed Enthusiasm joy like the Bulls were playing one style of basketball the ball was flying around dudes were jacking threes It was fast. They were hit ahead passes boom boom three boom boom three rebound boom three the Lakers were like walking the ball up on Happy in molasses bulls won by 20. I think Lonzo had 27 points.
He made seven threes Levine had 26 points Demar had 38 on 15 of 23 shooting And I remember I went out for a beverage with some Bulls people who are at the game that night at the hotel next door And they were trying to pump the brakes as team people do about you know There's a long way to go blah blah blah But you could tell that they felt and it was hard to disagree with their feeling like we actually might have might be onto something here And I was a Bulls pessimist and they knew that I was a Bulls pessimist and so I think they enjoyed that aspect of our of our get together but Look I don't think this bull steam would have amounted to like a huge playoff contender had everything clicked around You know I said when they did all this that I would bet against them ever winning more than one playoff series in a season during the sort of Whenever era this is of these four guys together But there's no denying that stylistically they had something and that Lonzo was the guy who connected it all together And they'd be a way better team today instead of this mediocrity that they are with Lonzo and then it's just it's just so sad Like there's a chances career is over. I mean we don't know but like there's a chances career is over at age 25 And that's just for anybody it's just a bummer man. I don't know what do you what is there anything else? Is injuries are like there's no takes on injuries are like they suck and it sucks it just sucks They generally are yeah I've been working on going through my old draft database and going through old projections and seen Lonzo atop his draft class one that obviously Included Jason Tatum has been really depressing to see this week for the same reason You know you're saying like the guys in that class are just kind of hitting their prime even thankfully Mark L Foltz who you know is the number one pick and that draft ahead of Lonzo it took a circuitous route to get here But it's finally playing some really good basketball for Orlando You would use is we need to think of a more complex shape that goes into like the seventh dimension to describe the path Mark L folks took to this place fair fair But like Darren Fox first time all star this year Tatum just reaching his prime And yeah for Lonzo to not be able to play at all at this stage His career is is tremendously disappointing.
It hasn't been described this way, but it seems like it's been described as a cartilage transplant That's typically what's known as a de novo surgery and I only know of two NBA players who have had that previously and it's been a while Milcom Lee who is kind of long forgotten had this in like 2013 and then Jason Richardson had it before his comeback with the Stixers at the tail end of his career So he was able to get back on the court. Welcome Lee, you know hasn't been the same player We also like he was I think a rookie when he had this I don't know that we knew what kind of player it was gonna be But he actually is still playing basketball a decade later professionally So there is some precedent for being able to you know kind of play on after this surgery But it definitely is something that if you get to that point, it's kind of a last resort I don't know anything else to say it just get well Lonzo. I miss watching it play We all miss watching a play. I don't really want to talk about what it means for the bulls yet So the season the bulls are still we're not gonna talk about these but they got they got a season to play Let's see how the season wraps up for them the other bit of news yesterday that was broke long rumored It felt like this rumor popped up every year and accelerated when Michael Jordan sold a minority stake in the Hornets to one of these guys Last year, I think but what was reporting Michael Jordan is in serious talks to sell a majority share of the Hornets To to to combined two buyers one of whom rickshawl who's based in New York is a minority owner of the Atlanta Hawks I think this is a big deal.
It's I mean it's Michael Jordan So it's a big deal and it's a big deal apparently he's gonna retain a minority stake in the team Which I think is really good for the league and really good for him Michael Jordan should be involved with the NBA It's a big deal that he should be involved in the NBA I think African-American ownership is a big deal in the NBA at the highest levels in the front office on coaching staffs all that I just I'm very interested to see where this goes for the Hornets because Stephen a Smith on his show today Kevin I don't know if you saw he had he had a little comment on this and he said because of who Michael Jordan is Trusting his co-workers and his staff in Charlotte was almost more important to him than hiring You know, maybe I don't exactly know what Stephen a Smith said outside my head It was sort of like more important than hiring the very best Basketball people from outside wherever they came. I think that was Stephen a's way of saying this is kind of been a family and friends operation In Charlotte for a long time and that's not a bad thing It just is is what it is I don't you know, it just is and I do know that the Hornets have developed a reputation among coaches and staff who have been in that Organized age for the last 10 years and have gone elsewhere and come back and go and elsewhere as a place that I think needs To kind of step up to the plate financially and in terms of infrastructure compared to other teams just in terms of facilities Staffing sports science just the money that sport into the team and the infrastructure that sport is the team and that was the buzz Yes, I was at the Nets Kings game yesterday when this news broke and everybody was talking about that There was a lot of people at that game who had been with the Hornets before saying okay Well, let's see sort of what this does to change this franchise that really just I mean has it won a playoff series in ages and And hasn't drafted particularly well for the last 15 to 20 years and they are actually Charlotte's an attractive market players like Charlotte Kevin Walker still lives in Charlotte like Charlotte is it's not a big glamour market It's never gonna compete with those, but it's a market that has some appeal to Yeah, and look this is a crucial moment for the Hornets is a franchise. Obviously you've got we just talked about long though LaMello ball you've got a young all-star Who's not even entering his prime yet and you're about to pair him with some form of a lottery pick because you know The the Hornets basically can't win their way below fourth going into the lottery So you know those combination of those two guys some other young talent on the roster some decisions to make with PJ Washington What happens with miles bridges? Do we ever get resolution with you know his situation going forward in the NBA?
This is a crucial moment for the Hornets So you know hopefully if there is kind of a change of majority ownership that can all be in place before the start of free agency That's the news. Oh and Kevin herder Well, it's just reported has avoided his MRI's clean He's avoided any serious injury hamstring strain day-to-day. We'll talk about the Kings now over later anyway, so the West The Western Conference did the East last week the West the Nuggets Number 147 to 23 snapped their four-game losing streak by beating what's left of the Detroit Pistons in Detroit in a game That was far too close for comfort for like 41 minutes and then Denver pulled away didn't make me feel good about the number Not gets even when they went up like 15 16 17 at the end wasn't feeling great about the nuggets didn't feel great Kings and grizzlies Kings 42 and 27 grizzlies 41 and 27 and that's gonna be your two and three seeds after that The Suns have 32 losses at number four The Pelicans have 36 losses at number 12. No one in this conference has a higher point differential than Denver's plus 3.9 per game Which is weak sauce for a number one seed in any conference one team one in this Western conference has a winning record against teams above 500 One that's Denver everyone else has a losing record against winning teams.
That's stinky So I asked you before we talk and I think we can break this conference what's left of it into three races the race for number two Which is a two team race the race for number four which I'm going to characterize as a three team race now We could become a much bigger team race than that But for purposes of today Friday St. Patrick's day March 17th at 1214 PM Eastern time Sorry, it's gonna be a three team race and then the race for six which is just a gigantic mess But I asked you before this this sort of hey I know you know how to use these databases and you can go click click click and find stuff out like how how unusual is this to have a Conference so jumbled in the middle slash bottom middle and so What's the opposite of top heavy? I mean so so sort of weak at the top just in terms of the lack of a dominant team in point differential so take it away Yeah, it's definitely middle heavy. So let's start with kind of the the jumbled nature You mentioned five I went with wins rather than losses five wins separate fourth and in 12th That would be the smallest in NBA history through 70 games.
There's never been a conference Whereas fewer than seven games that differential seven wins that differential smallest in NBA history like hit those words hard That's ever in the whole time which we should fairness there a lot of NBA history There were not 12 teams in each conference I looked at this post merger for all of this by the time they actually got to that size the closest those two two spots in the conference have been over a Full season 2002 Eastern Conference the Hornets were the four seed with 44 wins. I think the next year was the last time that was their last season in Charlotte I think so that I think would have been the last time they Had that that go to record basically Miami finished 11th in the conference with 36 wins that year It is the least overall spread in terms of the conference in terms of just the standard deviation of wins across all 15 teams or however I mean there were since the 1998-99 lockout shortened east Which was famously when the Knicks made the NBA finals is the eighth seed that year They finished six games back out of 50 in that season behind the top-seeded heat Which was part of the reason that they were able to make that run and then the last thing I looked at You look at this group that's between 33 and 37 wins in the West There were seven teams in that group the most we've ever had within four wins of each other in a conference was the 2017-18 Western Conference A little bit similar this in terms of the middle heavy portion There were six teams between 46 wins and 49 wins the Blazers finished third at 49 and 33 The Nuggets that year had the kind of de facto play in against the Minnesota Oh, yeah, missed out on the playoffs They were 46 and 36 so that was kind of the jumble with third through ninth in the West that year and intriguingly both the number three and number four See it's that year got upset in the first round Portland got swept by New Orleans You know you humiliated by New Orleans. I would say make her miss the league over four times by New Orleans and then Is the show the next year Oklahoma City lost to Utah in the first round that was the Carmelo Anthony playoff series Although the big difference between the 2018 West and this year's West is yeah There were a lot of teams in the middle Houston was 16 games up on third Golden State was nine games up on third You kind of knew it was gonna play each other in what was an epic seven game conference finals And that's where it's different than this year So I guess the last piece of it that you got into there the lack of in elite team in terms of point differential There are three times since the merger that no team in a conference has had a point differential of even 4.0 the 1977 Eastern Conference where Philadelphia was tops with 3.9 the 1984 Western Conference the Lakers were tops at 3.8 Our believe a Showtime team would be involved in this like week number one seed kind of conversation Right. Yeah, this was kind of the the story of showtime Although they'd already won two championships previously and then the 79 West Phoenix was at 3.7 So not surprisingly two of these in that immediate post merger period that it was kind of marked by the lack of great teams So if you look at those three conferences The the Sixers and Lakers both lost in the finals that year The the Sixers being upset by the blazers the Lakers losing one of those Lakers Celtics match ups The 79 West actually did produce a champion in part because there wasn't any really dominant team in the East that year either It was not Phoenix though.
It was the Seattle Sonics who were the number one seed and went on to beat the bullets in the finals Sonics bullets two teams that don't exist anymore in that name All of that to me lends credence to the idea that yeah, this is absolutely a wide open conference You know all this Hollinger went through all these stats a couple weeks ago in his weekly column Which is must read at the athletic about how I think it was centered on the Warriors about how rare it is You know here we are discussing the Warriors and the Clippers as these sort of like Juggernauts in waiting good teams and waiting assumed contenders at some point And he made the point of like teams just don't come from six to win the conference from seven to win It just doesn't happen and I actually think this is a season where it could happen for all the reasons that we're outlining right now Or at least it's much more likely to happen That's just common sense and all of these are small sample sizes as you put it Like the whole NBA is a small sample set it's like 75 years of history half of which is you know Not even relevant to how the game is played today and how the number of teams are so I don't think would be particularly surprising If something crazy happened in the West and worked two weeks ago on this podcast I said, you know look everyone's sort of Penciling in Sacramento as this cute feel good first round team that's gonna get beat beat then and but that's fine You know first playoffs since whenever 16 years ended the drought They won their 42nd game last night. I was at the game Not a lot of celebration in the Kings locker room for clinching a winning record for the first time in a million years But I said like if you look at the seedings right now, you're telling me like they draw a minnesota Memphis Path like minnesota's six to now. So now they'd be seventh Memphis in two three like there's an easy path Not easy, but it's like not unreasonable at all for the set was to wake up in two months Be like the kings are up 1-0 in the conference finals like it that's that even if like there I can tell you this they're not scared of any of these teams they've played the Warriors wall They played the Clippers well. They are not like Whoa, if we get in the playoffs when we face those teams we're frightened of them, but that's it.
We'll talk about that Um, we'll talk about that later So I will start this discussion by asking you point blank every meeting I had this week in New York I had a lot of meetings I asked this question and it was it was met with Deep breaths and size and pauses like oh my god. Whoa Based on what we know today right now Not if everyone's healthy not if there's an ideal scenario like that not x y and z Not if so and so passes so and so in the standings against home court based on what we know right now Who would you pick to come out of the west and make the finals? So I think to you know everything you just said I think the rules some of the rules that normally exist don't apply this year because if you're saying that you know In hollinger went into this in that column like this is kind of the usual market of a team that makes the finals If nobody qualifies for that it is a contender, you know, it seems to get there I think kind of everybody's a contender to a degree are you saying are you saying there are no rules? Just right The other element I would say to your point though is you know with those teams that we kind of think of is you know sleeping giants Individually their chances if there's six they're lower or not that high But if there's three or four of them that have that potential collectively their chances are pretty high So all that is my long way of saying that I think there's like seven or eight teams that have at least a five percent chance of winning the western conference But without with your the way you phrase the question I think you have to default to Denver as the number one seat as the single most likely team and the team that has the fewest question marks going into the playoffs And let's be clear the way I phrase this question is you have to make some assumptions, right?
So like based on what we know today My best assumptions would be the following LeBron comes back at some point towards the end of the regular season. Do I know that for sure? No, I don't know what the hell's gonna happen. We'll see Durant comes back Let's say two three games he gets in the regular season.
It could be more could be less. Let's just but in my head That's what I'm assuming wiggins comes back from this this family matter that is very very serious And and at some point and makes the Warriors hold again those would be my built-in assumptions I have to answer my own question Based on all that information all those assumptions I think I would pick Phoenix and I wouldn't feel great about it because obviously No matter when Durant comes back assuming he does before the end of the season if he does They're not gonna have a lot of time to play with their key lineups They are already plus 44 in 62 minutes, which is do the math quite good With the big three and eight and on the floor together just 62 minutes They gotta figure out who their fifth guy is what their bench rotation is you can see Mona Williams every game is like Okay, you're gonna play in the first half jockely and no I didn't like that bizmak Okay, tj Warren you give it a shot here in the second quarter. Oh, you still look really injured terence Ross comment Oh, you were over five baby and Lee come up and it's like, okay Like this is the price of a trade like this mid season without an ability to rebuild your bench But I think this stretch from Denver was more than just Something you can wave away with like on just malaise regular season. They don't care They're going through the motions yoke it's playing nine-dimensional chest to lose the MVP on purpose None of this matters.
I think there are real questions about their defense Jamal Murray's play has been up and down and up and down all season and they're depth Just I had Adam ours on earlier this week and I said who's the second best bench player on their team Who's the seventh guy on their team and he said Christian Brown who at that point was not even in the rotation? And then went in the rotation. So I think there are real questions about Denver They are 30 and 6 at home, which to your point is a big deal. Um, I would go Phoenix I don't feel great about it I picked the Clippers to make the finals before the season We'll talk about them shortly, but I don't do you worry about how much do you worry about like the Durant continuity factor The idea that they're just not gonna have time to figure out their team I don't worry that much about the Durant continuity factor I mean, I think that's kind of the beauty of Durant is you've talked about so many times that he's like the most plug-in place superstar In NBA history and I think we saw that in the three games that he did play with the Suns granted that two of them were against pretty weak competition And the third of which Dallas like that's a team that you know has all sorts of its problems of its problems of its own that uh, you know We'll get into at some point here So that that's maybe why I'm a little lower and the other aspect of it is looking for Kevin Durant were healthy this entire time Yes, they would be building continuity They would also be gaining wins and you know when when they won that game against Dallas It seemed like it was a pretty good chance They might be able to move into that third seed in that two three bracket that looks much friendlier right now Then you know if you're in the four five bracket, you're gonna probably have to play another one of these You know teams with a lot of postseason track record in the first round second round you're lining up for Denver And that seems like a much more difficult path.
I mentioned 2018 is kind of the comparison to the west being this jumbled The next year 2019 is probably the better comparison in terms of one half of the bracket had the rockets The Warriors I think the Rockets played the jazz in the first round that year and the jazz were really strong in terms of point differential And then the other side of the bracket had Denver which was making its first playoff run Had the blazers coming off of that sweep in the first round You know it was the the friendlier side of the bracket and Portland wrote that to the conference finals Whereas Houston a team that I think you know generally we would have said was the stronger those two teams lost in the second round Because that's when they came up against the Warriors Yeah, that was the end That was really the end of the Rockets more or less I mean that was Durant gets hurt at the end of game five in that series in Golden State And the Rockets have the red carpet laid out in front of them like okay the year before your team was better That was the that was a 65 win team They were up three two against the Warriors in the conference finals in the in the battle of the juggernauts and then Chris Paul got hurt and Andre got hurt the Rockets miss 9 million threes they lose the series Come back next year not as good one year the fourth seed Warriors are the one seed and down goes to rent And you got a chance and they just pooped a bed and the Warriors warriors Warriors them to depth with one step dream on picking or left or another then Chris Paul got traded and Then of course my grand conspiracy starts to kick in between the Sixers the Rockets and then James Harden and the nets to defraud the nets out of their draft picks And all this stuff happens and now the Sixers are amazing and they have to get started Do I believe in that conspiracy maybe five percent of my soul does um, okay Let's talk about the playoff races then Uh, I want to start with the race for fourth in the west which I have deemed and you may think unfairly so and if you do That's fine a three team race between Phoenix at 38 and 32 the Clippers at 37 and 33 We have one four in a row and Russell Westbrook has fit in much better than I anticipated What I would I have done it? No, do I feel confident in him playing a huge gigantic role for the Clippers? No Uh, do does it make me feel better that Tai Lu has kept him on the bench in close in a couple of four close fourth quarters Yes, but to his credit despite the continued turnover issues and no one guarding him from the perimeter He has pushed the pace. He's played selfless basketball.
He is I Shutter to say it setting some picks Picks are the things where you stand in the way of the defender and you try to hit him So someone else can dribble into open space. He's doing that like four times again Which for him is wilt chamberlin scoring 100 points level screening and he's been playing well pushing the pace finding open guys And then the Warriors at 36 and 34 who um, you know, whatever. I mean look it again. It's just at home They're amazing on the road.
They are seven and 27. It's just absolutely confounding Um They are missing wiggens I just haven't really enjoyed the Jordan pool experience at all this season the number of bizarre turnovers and bad defenses Just is crazy and there's just a lot of uncertainty hovering over their team the bob myer story jaymond green's player option The punch all the way back there. It's like sometimes that seeps into your team So here's where we are phoenix has a game up on the clippers and two games up on the warriors Um, they have a pretty tough schedule including two games against denuggets They do currently and probably will finish with the tiebreakers over both the clippers and the warriors Which is why they are large percentage point favorites to cinch this fourth seat up and leave the clippers in the warriors Trying to just make sure they stay out of the play and so I will let you take this wherever you want Is there one of these three teams that you think is particularly interesting particularly strong a paper tiger? Is there a fourth team that should be included here based on your analysis?
You go wherever you want with it? But that's the race for four Let's start with the last question because I think not because the wild things the clippers are four and five since the all-star break They have not lost ground to the teams behind them in the standards because the timbers are also four and five in that stretch And dallas obviously, you know losing some games without both looking and kairi lately I'm glad you said that because every day I hear things like well, okay, the Lakers at 34 and 36 I mean, they're only whatever games out of fourth and here's or six or whatever it is So here's the thing if the Warriors go 500 the rest of the season 500 That's it like all these teams do they're 42 and 40 For the Lakers to get to 42 and 40 and tie the Warriors which people keep writing is like this easy thing They have to go eight and four in their last 12 games Eight and four for these teams is like being the 73 win Warriors for a month like these teams can't go eight and four You just can't do it so to your point like that's actually not insignificant amount of ground to make up Which is why I only have three teams in this race for four Yeah, I mean you're just running out of time and then the other aspect of it is, you know from the Lakers perspective in particular Yeah, okay. Maybe you might go eight and four to tie the Warriors They have gone seven and four in their last 11 games Is no one else is gonna go seven and five in this group? Probably some one will in this group that the number of teams matters in addition to just the number of games back Those factors both go into your chances of moving up in the standings But I agree with you.
I think it's pretty much a three team race at this point I don't know. I have any strong feelings about those three teams I mean the other aspect of the west seven say in all years like if you don't like the standings wait 15 minutes because With the team that was hot, you know one two or three games in a row one week is gonna have that losing streak the next week And they're gonna be back where they were in the first place So, you know, I I mean could the Clippers or Warriors pass the Suns certainly yeah, am I gonna bet on either of them to do it? No, not based on the way that they've played all season Um, I just I haven't talked to you about these things. I want your opinion now Um, what do you how do you think the Clippers have looked with Russ Eric Gordon Mason plumbly like what have been some of your big takeaway so far?
It's been interesting to see Eric Gordon send such a big role in the last couple of games He finished their win on Saturday over the Knicks as you mentioned He was out there and not Westbrook and also not Terrence Mann is the the backup point guard So and then that lineup also he ended up playing a crucial role The other night because the fact that Mark is more senior got ejected early in that game So, you know, he took on a larger role and he gives them shooting You know that they that they certainly need and a little bit of strength when you're switching picker He's coming very valuable for them with nor did power out of lineup I guess is whereas he's made the biggest impact and plumbly same thing in the games that Zubot's missed You know, those would have been a much bigger struggle for the Clippers I think had they not had plumbly in the lineup I mean, you know, they still continue to be a team that when they play well when kawaii and pg are on the court You still see the reasons that we were so high on this team I also picked them to win the west coming into the season That we thought that upside was so high and then you just see other moments where it's like Can can they figure things out? Can they stay out of their own way and you know, that's kind of the nature of everybody in this group all season that they're good moments Are really good, but they're bad moments are really bad. Yeah. I mean kawaii has been for 35 games now old kawaii peak kawaii on both ends of the floor And I think I think both the Clippers and the Warriors could still win the title I mean could could definitely still win the west now.
Milwaukee Boston Philly It's a different animal than anything. They're gonna face in the west But I think both those teams have that potential. I'm not out on either of them and I never have been and The interesting thing about plumlee is now that Zubot's and plumlee are both healthy They're not playing small anymore in recent games I think they'll go back to that matchup based when it when it's appropriate But that's been interesting too because I thought that is when Russ would be very useful is where they had no center on the floor And they're not playing those lineups By the way the Clippers and the Suns play on the last game of the season, which could be a meaningful game Um I've liked they're playing okay I mean we'll see the defense has been so inconsistent for two three months now that it's hard to know what to make of that But um I still think it seems really good. Let's go to the jumbled race race the race for the race for sixth The race to stay out of the play and which has to involve I think by default the Warriors and the Clippers at five and six But then after that we get Minnesota there 500 that was there 500 No, it's time about the Mavericks because lugar and kairi of both of the missing games They're 500 that's seemed that Lakers 34 and 36 just lost to the Rockets without AD even as you have noted have been playing very very well They are plus 10 per 100 possessions with Vanderbilt and AD together and those two with LeBron have only played 48 minutes together They destroyed people in those 48 minutes their new starting five has played only 18 minutes together That's the LeBron starting five with Russell Beasley Vanderbilt Davis We'll see if if um, if they ever get a chance to really blend that group together thunder 34 and 36 not going away And then Utah and New Orleans both at 33 and 36 and then the Blazers.
I'm excluding the Blazers I'm sorry blazers. I have to draw the lines somewhere you are 31 and 38 you've lost four in a row not looking good I am excluding the 13th place Portland Trailblazers from this from this race a lot of interesting teams here Minnesota might get cat back soon Interestingly Kevin they are plus 10 per 100 possessions plus 10 with the force some of Edwards McDaniel's go bare And slow mo on the floor together and whether it's Conley or Russell departed now that group has been I mean dominant might be strong It's been very very good and now they're they have to restart the process of Figuring out the twin towers at some point which is an interesting plot to us. Um, I guess I would start here Let's just ask the question Can the Lakers do this? What a remarkable story would be Kevin if Everyone spent the first two months of the season laughing at the Lakers calling for robin linkus head Wondering why are they holding onto these draft picks?
They're wasting lebron's prime f those picks this and that what a story it would be if the Lakers were in the finals Could it happen? I guess I guess what I'm asking you if LeBron if LeBron comes back healthy. Why couldn't it happen? I mean, I think that what we've seen about the Lakers is they're fragile And that's kind of gonna be inevitably the case when LeBron James at this age and Anthony Davis are your two star players No ad right now Is not scheduled to play back to back to the rest of the season despite LeBron's absence and that obviously caused them against Houston pretty severely and you know It feels like every time people get a little too excited about the Lakers either they suffer an injury or they lose at home to the next Something happens to remind us that like this is still a deeply flawed team But it is not as deeply flawed as the team at the start of the season and the trade has worked in exactly I think the ways they hoped you know, d- d- angel Russell still on the heater that he was on his last two months with the timber wolves You know, Malik Beasley hasn't necessarily shot it super well, but you have to respect him for god bless me Beasley he thinks his whole life is a heater and I hope he never changes I also hope that bander built its wild because like he was kind of getting slag at the end of his time in Utah that You know, this is like a fake hustle try hard kind of guy and I'm like, I'm sorry in Minnesota He was very useful for them last season like that doesn't seem right now.
He's also a honeymoon period Also, I like trying hard. I'd like to have guys on my team to try hard. That sounds nice It's a very weird criticism to me like Patrick Beverly gets tagged with the same thing. His his His teammate last year is almost teammate this year He's a non-human period in LA and right now can do absolutely no wrong And I think eventually his value is probably gonna settle somewhere between those two spots probably close to what what it was at the end of his time in Minnesota And the just the depth that they've provided now that you've got you know, Lonnie Walker the fourth is the swing guy in your rotation He doesn't need to be in there every night, but when he is in it he plays well Austin Reeves coming off the bench, you know, that's that's actually not bad like he's been what he should be in Sensational and when when Russell was hurt he was their backup point guard.
He was like cool I'll do that and I'll score a little bit more too. He's been really really good So I think I think some of the Lakers get in any one playoff series They have more than a punchers chance I think no matter the matchup because again, there's no dominant team in this conference The odds of them putting together three of those series in a row after winning the play in I think it's where that fragility comes into play But there's certainly a world where it happens. Yeah, that's what I've been saying about the punchers chance thing all year is There's just a grand Canyon sized chasm between yeah, they could win a series They could win any series any of these teams They could be any of them four times in seven games doing that three times is just an entirely different thing than doing it once And I think they're just less complete than the Warriors the Clippers and the Suns Above them even even at full health But look the wolves who are seventh and mabs where eighth and the Lakers who are ninth are all hell bent on getting in like other They're not gonna play Anthony Davis on back to backs All those teams are incentivized because of their age because it picks out the door to just go all out to get in the playoffs They have to try to get in the playoffs. That's not necessarily the case for the Thunder or the jazz who are 10th and 11th But I think both of those teams You know look the Thunder have been sitting sga on back to backs after his after his injury and that's that's fine I don't think there's anything like nefarious going on there I think they should go all in to make the playoffs I I was arguing about this with some agents in the city this week They're kind of joking about well when they're gonna pull the plug You know they want to get even if it's a 1% chance at when banyama or whatever You know they want to get in that lottery and I'm like f that get into the playoffs You have so much young talent you have home-grant coming next year like getting the flight How fun would it be and by the way everything we're saying right now if you somehow get through the play in And you're playing Denver or Sacramento in the first round If it's 1-1 coming to Oklahoma City if you steal one game of those first two That environment is going to be bananas and it's gonna be awesome for those young players So I say go for it Oklahoma City Which is coalesced around an identity of Shea wing jailing Williams dort and giddy as their four kind of core starters And sort of a small ball look um let me can I ask you about the pelicans So last year's ions out they acquired cj mccallum and larry nance They pushed the suns really hard in the first round of the playoffs after winning two games to get out of the play in And seem to be a team on an upward trajectory like that was a dangerous team without Zion that was a dangerous team More or less the same team and i'm being facetious and I think you know why but well on paper the same team knows ion again And they just they've been awful for months.
They've been awful their offense is falling into a graveyard So why did this roster look so promising last year without Zion and now without Zion looks completely dead in the water What's your take? Yeah, I was glad you asked this question via texas morning because it's something I haven't looked into but have been curious about for the Same reasons that you asked it is you know, it felt like they should have been able to hang on One of the things you didn't mention about the Lakers, you know the start of the season was oh my god You have this pick swap with the pelicans you might send victor when banyama tini orlids No, it doesn't look like that swap is even good convey and by the way Related in this nexus of mediocrity The pelicans were close to getting beasley and vander bill from uta at the trade that one are close ish They had a pretty good offer on the table was a draft equity based offer with a pick that maybe was not as good as the Lakers picked They ended up trading but pretty close I think from what I've heard Um, but the issue one of the issues was if maybe the picks weren't exactly equivalent But the other she was conley and the jazz is a determination to get off a conley and could the pelicans figure that out somehow and it became a little complicated But like that trade ends up helping the Lakers helping the wolves and the pelicans don't get involved in it And now they're falling apart but go ahead with the picks what did it help the wolves? I think that's a question we have to ask here because it would be nice if my conley looked a little bit off the pick and roll If what did he stands or say about lying like it's not a lie if you believe it the wolves believe it helped them Then maybe damn it it helped them. I understand the reasons for wanting to make that right I don't know if it's worked out quite as well as they hope but yeah So zion has been out since january second in that spandy pelicans have a bottom five offense their 26th in offensive rating You look at last year after the all-star break when they were making this run to get in the pull in eventually win out of the play and they were 10th in offensive And scare the crap out of the suns.
Yep. So a couple of differences digging deeper into kind of the shooting Underline metrics last year they were average during that stretch in terms of attempts in the restricted area This year without zion there to put pressure on the rim they are 23rd and that's you know kind of a tough way to live But it made me think that jaxon haze started yet powerful during that stretch was actually kind of an important thing for them because He was that guy who was going to put pressure for the on the rim in the way that you notice on tunas and also You know to a lesser degree bilean on gomez who has gotten most of those backup center minutes over at haze this season Just don't do and then the other element of his last year these were the monsters in the mid range They were bringing the mid range back You know they shot 49 percent on non-paint twos after the all-star break that certainly carried over in the phoenix season It was cj and engrum isolating and knocking down pull up jumpers off the dribble This year they're the average in this stretch on non-paint twos 41 percent And if you're going to be as bad a three-point shooting team as they were in both of these stretches that really isn't a difference You kind of need those to go in if you're gonna make it work That that and there like you said they're not pressuring the rim their offensive reboundings falling off You don't know tunas minutes are down like I don't I don't really know if it's just his performance is more or less Statistically the same the whole team just looks a little sludgy to me like they just don't have a lot of punch You know they just don't like they look slow and tired And I wonder if part of it is just the strain from playing without key players for so long So many guys having to do a little bit more than they're accustomed to and just if you look They're just injured all the time and it's not only Zion like bi missed a lot of games and it's come back recently Again his numbers look the same he doesn't look the same to me when I watch them play like one out of every four games He'll go for 35 and look amazing Yeah, he just doesn't look like he's got the same zip and CJ's been playing with a thumb injury on his shooting hand for a while now That's affecting his shooting he's talked about that but like nance miss three or four games here and there valentune is three or four games here and there alvarado Right now. It just feels like too many guys Are nicked up and they just oh you're out tonight this guy's just it's just a mess health-wise And I think there's still hope within the team that Zion will come back at some point this season But like it's March 17th. It's at some point this season this season is going to be over And they're just in a freefall and I don't you know, we'll see you know if they can if they get out of it They have an easy schedule which is which is one one edge that they have but You know this competition is pretty tough.
It's just like I don't know we didn't really talk about Minnesota to Dallas Oklahoma City and give me give me something on one of these teams that you wanted to get to if there's anything I mean Oklahoma City you mentioned it in terms of them having a chance for the same reasons that all these other teams do if they make it out of the Plan they're fifth and the last point differential right now like this is a legitimately competitive team Which I think is again all the more reason that like you don't need to be that worried about the slim outside chance of moving up into the top four You know, it's a nice consolation prize if you don't make it, but I agree with you Let's let's go for it and see what these guys can do and give them I mean I do think like what we've seen from New Orleans kind of cuts against the like oh the value of playing in the playoffs and you know You're young guys get that experience and it really helped the pelicans this year and I've looked at it in the past and found There's not really any they're not really any difference going forward The the making the lottery is like the the 13th team going into lottery doesn't really change your lifelong term The making the playoffs doesn't it kind of doesn't matter if it doesn't matter than you may as well try Yeah, but it matters for fun like one of those things is more fun The other one is like oh the lotteries here and with the 13th pick the envelope Oh, it's us okay lotteries over like that's so fun anymore play offices play offices is fun Just and the dumbest possible way to and it's actually that dumb But like the most sort of surface level analysis of playoff series if the thunder somehow play the kings the thunder somehow play the grizzlies And I'll stop there who has the best player in the series Yeah, I mean I would certainly take Shay over to Aaron Foxx. He's probably he's played better than John Moran at this season. Yeah, yeah I'm just not a lot of guys in the league who have played better than Sean Shay has this season I'm not sure I want anyone taking a last shot of a game over dear in fox I mean, I'm not sure I want anyone taking it to like the shot that my life depends on the season more than dear in fox I talked with him a little bit after the next game last night about the it's effing I'm effing nice thing that he said after the bull shot and he just talked about like he told me It was my way of saying like the team kind of gets gets out of my way in those situations And it was kind of my way of saying like his quote was like, you know, I'm gonna deliver I'm gonna deliver and it's like man you've been delivering delivering all year and that let's do quickly two versus three The numbers still say it's like a 50-50 race between the kings and the grizzlies I think partly because the grizzlies have the easiest remaining schedule in the league They play the Rockets twice the magic the thunder The kings have the tiebreaker the kings are just playing better the grizzlies just the atoms clark double whammy I mean for the jaw stuff, you know We should actually mention that john's gonna come back pretty soon probably next week after meeting with adam silver in new york Next week all you can say is hopefully he's doing well and is ready to play the teams welcoming him back And that's great But the adam's clark double whammy from emphis is just enormous and just it just tears away Now adam's may come back at some point he was gonna miss a month which would take him right to the end of the season It just tears away at the fabric of what their team is in terms of bully ball As with the stats with adam's on the floor their offensive rebounding rate is like 37 percent They rebound like almost 40 percent of their own misses Which is basically like that's the greatest offensive rebounding team ever in modern history anyway And without him it falls to 27 percent, which is just kind of like normal NBA team And we talked about sack and the pathway they have To play our success We'll see there certainly are the more stable team. I'll tell you though the kings They're gonna play their way in the playoffs like this whole thing about the game slows down in this and that they are not gonna slow down Like they're gonna run they're gonna run their stuff.
They're gonna run after makes They're gonna have subonus run it up the floor fox run up the floor and they are hard to play against like they're a little They're a little small Which I think if you talk to their coaches is one reason they think their defense just hasn't kicked into gear And why teams continue to shoot above expectations against them is that they're just a little small They're a little undersized probably getting a little unlucky too Um, but they're gonna the way they play is hard for teams to play against both in transition and the half court And I don't think there's gonna be this sort of like Shellshock. Oh wow the playoffs are different than the regular season I think they're just gonna play their way and they're good There's a like legit good team I mean everyone keeps waiting for them to come back to the path and back and it keeps not happening and instead They've been the team that has played, you know, the best probably in the western conference clearly the western conference since the all-star break I mean they're they're two and a half games ahead of anyone else in the west with two Lakers is number two since the all-star break So this is exciting stuff I mean the one thing that I think has been the biggest concern for me about the kings is like how much of this is just their health that they have Enjoyed unusual health this season and so the fact that herder is not going to be sidelined in extended period of time is good news That that's probably the position where they're best, you know, equipped to handle a short-term absence because Malik Monk has quietly been awesome this year Desserts I think some consideration for the six-man award and then they've got Terrence Davis who's been out of the rotation But it's played pretty well when he has played the citizen and can step into a larger role So, you know, I don't think that's gonna slow them down too much. Well, okay, so connected to the health thing They have a very stable rotation like it's written in stone almost every night. Yeah lately.
It's um, Kessler Edwards instead of Terrence Davis but it's like it's Fox will play with the bench and Chamezi Metu and then Sabonis will play with the rest of the bench and Davey on Mitchell So Sabonis and Mitchell are attached together Fox and Metu are attached together It's Sagar Fox and Sabonis and I just I just wonder it's not so much the health thing because that applies to every team Like oh so it's injured. They're screwed. Yeah, I'm no kidding I don't it I don't know if they have like multiple looks to them like multiple styles like at some point in the playoffs They're teams are gonna take away your a game and force you to pivot over here to your B and your C game And that's where I like the fact that the Celtics have a Robert Williams a third look and a horde for an incentive look The Bucks have a Yannas at center look. Oh, uh, Yannas handling the ball look a Yannas is picking roll screener look now And you can say the Kings getting go iso with Fox.
I think that gets harder in the playoffs They'll put bigger defenders on him. I don't know if they have enough stylistic kind of like variety to them But what they do is really really powerful. Yeah, I think offensively they can play different styles in terms of how some onus centric are They are they gonna be more you know kind of pick and roll or isolation with Fox centric The other thing I think that's gonna matter for them a lot you mentioned there being small is matchups like if they draw kind of the more Physical Western Conference forwards if it's you know, it's seven games of kawaii isolations Like that's that's a lot to ask if you can marry in Harrison Barnes to defend those So I think a team that is less dependent on kind of physical combo forward play It is gonna be a better matchup for them for them in the first round I might rather play the Warriors from that standpoint, you know, even is as dangerous as they are and I don't know what the crowd would look like If it's a Warriors Kings playoff matchup, which I'm pretty sure has never happened I'm not even sure they've ever meet the playoffs in the same year. Have they?
It's a great to great question The background of the debate might part of his soul might be torn in that playoff series considering he was a minority owner for I think I think it's the opposite. I think it's like you want to be the worse. Yeah, I think it's like going against Westam now in Teddlassa I haven't watched that last so it's only one episode out so far only one. Yes I haven't watched it.
It's like how Joe Lake up wanted to like destroy the Celtics It was personal and it was it was more competitive from right Kevin Pelton. You have a mail back coming this week What do we got don't have a mail back schedule this weekend with turn on my talking about hopefully we'll return next weekend We get into week two your analysis is absolutely invaluable. You're the best at what you do It's a thrill to have you come on and Educate us here on the low post and how are the Kraken playing or the Kraken living up the expectations for you out there? They snapped a three-game losing streak last night.
They've got a good chance that they're you know on path for the first playoff appearance in franchise history So I'm not gonna take nearly as long as it did for say the Mariners Which was like 18 years between inception and the playoffs a year two would be pretty good for the Kraken Kevin Pelton. Thank you, sir I'll talk to you soon