Schaftlein Report | Economy contracts 0.9% in 2nd Quarter

1) Following (1.5%) in 1st Quarter, the debate is on. Is the USA in or approaching a Recession? 1A) Fed hikes rates 75 basis points. Another 100 basis point increases is expected by year end in effort to tame Inflation 2) The Federal Reserve has a $9T balance sheet. It has only been reduced by $16B since June. 2A) the 2 year not is yielding 20 basis points above the 10 year note signaling a slow down ahead and possible recession. 3) Sen. Manchin and Schumer reach agreement on slimmed down energy, climate, prescription drug and tax hike deal. Investments in energy, manufacturing with goal to reduce carbon emissions 40% by 2030, expand subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, Reform environmental Permitting to speed up domestic energy production, 15% minimum corporate tax and cut the deficit by $30B a year for 10 years. EV tax credits included in deal. 3A) What will Sen Sinema do. She has opposed tax increases on carried interest in the past 3B) Generate $739B in Revenue and spend $433B over 10 years. 4) Senate passes CHIPS bill to enhance domestic semiconductor chips. 17 Republicans join Democrats. 5) Warnock leads Walker by 3 and Kemp leads Abrams by 5 in Georgia polls. 6) While liberals scream about climate, Asia and Africa are building over 200 coal fired power plants. Why not focus on Methane which is 50x worse that CO2? 7) Biden offers prisoner swap of arms dealer for basketball player Griner and businessman Whelan.