Sean Trende: 2025 elections and political demographics, past and future

Today Razib talks to Sean Trende. He is a prominent American political analyst who currently serves as the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, a position he has held since 2010. He is also a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a lecturer at The Ohio State University, where he earned his Ph.D. in political science in 2023. Before transitioning to full-time political analysis, Trende practiced law for eight years at firms including Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Hunton & Williams LLP, holding a J.D. and M.A. from Duke University and a B.A. from Yale University. Known for his expertise in election forecasting, redistricting, and political demographics, he authored the book The Lost Majority (2012), co-authored The Almanac of American Politics 2014, and served as a court-appointed special master to redraw Virginia's legislative districts in 2021. Trende and Razib first talk about the elections in the fall of 2025 in Virginia and New Jersey, and what they tell us about the elections next year. They also discuss the election of Zohran Mamdani in New York City, and the rise of populism on the Left and Right. Razib asks Trende about why political commentary often assumes single-party rule is about to happen, only to be refuted by the reality of the opposition's resurgence once these claims are made. They also talk about Trende's distinctive personal background, and his perspective as a more centrist-libertarian commentator and professor in the political analyst field.