Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?

In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Main topics coveredWhy the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the monthHow index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX tradingAndy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocksWhy AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companiesThe Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matterBen Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trustBrent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocksWhy short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocksHow SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitementEric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job qualityWhy crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices aloneWhat investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cyclesTimestamps00:00 Intro01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble?20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episodeNo information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.