This Sunday, pole vault. When we fight, we win. With just six weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in our new NBC News poll. We are the underdog in this race and we have some hard work ahead of us.
We don't need votes. What we need is honesty in the election. Which side is more energized in the final sprint of the campaign? Steve Hornacki will break down the results, plus controversial comments.
You're staying in this race. We are intimate. The Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina vows to stay in the race after reports revealed he once called himself a black Nazi and defended slavery on a foreign site. We got folks running as Republicans for governor that are proud to prefer themselves as Nazis.
How will it impact Republicans chances in this critical battleground state and escalating attacks? Israel targets Hezbollah inside Lebanon after a wave of attacks targeting the militant group's communication devices. Is the war spreading into a wider conflict? My guest this morning, Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News chief White House correspondent Peter Alexander, Amy Walter, editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy, and former Republican Congressman Carlos Crabello. Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the PRESS from NBC News in Washington, the longest running show in television history. This is MEET THE PRESS with Kristen.
Welcome good Sunday morning. We begin with our brand new NBC News poll and the headline, Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump nationally by 5 points, 49 to 44% among registered voters. That is within the margin of error, but it's a shift from our last poll in July when Mr. Trump led President Biden by 2 points before Biden's exit from the race this week.
Both candidates crisscross key battleground states. If Kamala Harris is reelected, she will kill the American dream forever. She's not competent to be president either, but I don't want to be rude. Someone who suggests we should terminate the Constitution of the United States should never again stand behind the seal of the president of the United States.
There's a dramatic change in how positively voters view Harris. Her 21 point net swing from negative to positive is unmatched by a major party candidate in NBC News polling going back to 1989. And Harris is winning the change argument by nine points. Secret will take us through the numbers just moments from now.
Also this morning, sources are telling NBC News former President Trump is facing calls from his allies and from within his own campaign to pull his endorsement from scandal plague North Carolina gubernatorial candidate mark Robinson after Mr. Trump's past support. This is Martin Luther King on steroids. Okay?
Now, Robinson did not attend a rally Mr. Trump held in North Carolina on Saturday. Mr. Trump didn't mention Robinson and so far there are no plans for the former president to drop his endorsement.
On Thursday, CNN reported Robinson, who is currently the state's lieutenant governor, posted a series of comments on the message board of a pornography website more than a decade ago, including referring to himself as a black Nazi and expressing support for reinstating slavery. Mr. Robinson has said that the online posts are fakes generated by artificial intellig. Those are not the words of Mark Robinson.
Clarex Thomas famously once said he was the victim of high tech lynching. Well, it looks like Mark Robinson is too. The Harris campaign is already out with a new ad hiring former President Trump. To Robinson on the issue of abortion, he's been an unbelievable Lt.
Governor Mark Robinson, for me, there's no compromise on abortion. Abortion in this country is about killing a child because you aren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down. I've been with him a lot. I've got to know him and he's outstanding.
NBC Philadelphia, Florida spoke to Mr. Trump's running mate, Senator J. Vance, on Saturday. Are you comfortable with Mark Robinson as the Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina?
Well, the allegations are pretty far out there, of course, but the allegations aren't necessarily reality. And what I'd say is it's ultimately up to Mark Robinson in North Carolina where he's going to be together and whether he wants to stand the race. Do you believe him that those were not his hosts? I don't believe him.
I just think that you have to let these things sometimes play out in court public opinion. For her part, Harris was trying to court moderate swing voters on Thursday, sat down in Michigan with Oprah Winfrey and talked about immigration and gun violence. Some people have been pushing a really false choice to suggest you're either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone's guns away. I'm in favor of the Second Amendment and I'm in favor of assault weapons bans, universal background checks, red flag laws.
Number nine, house again shot. With just 44 days until election Day in person, early voting is already underway in three states, Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota. For more on our brand new NBC News poll, I am joined now by national political correspondent Steve Kornacki to take us through all of the numbers. Steve, a lot of headlines here, certainly, Kristen.
I mean, you're Looking at The biggest, Harris 49, Trump 44. 45 point advantage for Harris in this poll against Donald Trump. And if we zoom out here and look at the bigger significance of this finding, you know, we've been polling the 2024 race going back to last year and you can see here, these are all the results on the left side of the screen from when Joe Biden was still the Democratic candidate. And I see this is our first poll since Harris Wishkin and look at that result.
You can see that the race has been completely reshaped since Harris took the top of the ticket. Completely. One of the things powering that lead, we should note too, there's a pretty pronounced gender gap at this point. Harris among women is leading our poll by 21 points.
Among men, Trump is leading by 12. That is a 33 point gender gap. That's enormous. What we're seeing right here.
Take a look at this too. The debate of course happening in the last couple weeks, nearly 30% saying that debate made them more likely to support Harris. Much smaller number for Trump. That might be helping her as well here.
And then there's this, the view, the overall perception of Kamala Harris. Remember before she got in race, a lot of talk that her numbers didn't look better than Biden's. She was 32 pop positive, 50 negative before getting in this race. And now this is what you say and we have to pause it here because this is the largest increase that we have seen for any politician since George W.
Bush in the wake of the September 11 attacks on this issue. Absolutely, Chris. We're seeing numbers like this for years for Kyle Harris. Now you're seeing a very different story.
And what goes into that, that new level of popularity she has. Take a look here for you. There it is. Call this up here.
Some of the groups that have gravitated the most towards Harris just in terms of favorableness. Black voters, 24 point increase, independents, 20 young voters, 26 young voters. This is the group where Joe Biden, when he was still in, he was putting up very, very poor numbers for a Democrat. With Harris, you can see a 26 point jump there in her favorable score among voters under 30.
And look at this way, just put it in comparison with Biden and then with all the other national candidates this year, she's the only one, Kamala Harris right now in our poll with a higher positive score than a negative score. Compare that to Trump. And by the way, at the bottom of this list, look at J.D. vance.
Trump's running the lowest positive. We have to look at that. 53% for Trump. The highest negative rating of everyone here.
There it is. Yeah. The only 1 over 50% majority there. Take a look at some of the issues here.
He asked folks, what is the most important issue here? You've got inflation. You know, number one, you're also the economy. I mean, add together, you know, inflation and the economy, you're talking about 40% of the electric.
Citing that. And take a look at this. We talked about when Trump was running against Biden, he had some pretty strong advantages on the issues. Well, this was Trump versus Biden.
That's what you're seeing right here. This is Harris versus Biden. And look, Trump still has advantage on the economy. It's 9 points right now.
It used to be 22. On the border, it's 21. That's a big advantage. It used to be 35.
Look at this one. We talked about, remember age being such a big issue. Trump had a 29 point advantage over Joe Biden and the necessary mental, physical health. Now Harris, 20 point Trump.
It's so fascinating because Republican sources say if former President Trump would stick to the issues like immigration and the economy, he'd be doing better. This shows it opportunity there for him and Harris. That's part of the success she's had in taking the leads then eroding that. Okay, but look at it this way, a lot of positive news here for Democrats, for Kamala Harris.
But if you're a Republican looking at these numbers, look back to October 2020, it's very similar. You know, we say Harris has jumped into a three point net positive rating. That's where Joe Biden was in October 2020. Trump is pretty much in the same place, a little bit worse in terms of views of him as 2020.
But here's the other difference. In 2020, Trump was the incumbent president. 60% of people thought the country was on the wrong track. Now Harris is part of the incumbent administration and two thirds say the country's on the wrong track.
In 2020, Trump came within really a handful of votes in a few states winning that Electoral College, you know, as the challenger against the incumbent administration. Maybe overall not that much of a different setup here, certainly in the Electoral College within reach for him. Just a fascinating finding, Steve, with just six weeks ago. Here it is.
Thank you, Kristen. And joining me now is Senator John Fetterman of Penn Ferman. Welcome back to Meet the Press. Hi.
It's great to be here. Well, it is great to have you. Let's start with the results of Our NBC News poll, which shows that Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump by 5 points nationally. Still, almost two thirds of voters say household incomes are falling behind compared to inflation.
Why should Pennsylvania voters trust that Harris can turn things around when so many voters say they don't feel the results of the Biden Harris Policy Center? Yeah, well, it's a five point. So I mean, that's encouraging. But now I'm not going to say, well, now I don't have to drive for four and a half hours to have with a rally for Democrats in rural counties.
So it's going to be very close and you're going to see the polls. The Washington Post had a poll that I think it's effectively tied. And the other kinds, just like yours, has Harris up. But regardless, I promise you Pennsylvania's gonna be very close.
And otherwise if it's not, it's gonna be a great, nice surprise. But I'm expecting a very close and very competitive race through. It usually is in Pennsylvania. I want to shift now to North Carolina, another incredibly competitive state.
Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor, as you know there, reportedly made incredibly controversial posts on a pornographic website. Now he's denied making those posts. Former President Trump has not dropped his endorsement of Robinson. And I wonder if you think it is fair for voters to judge a candidate based on who they endorse.
Senator? Well, of course, but I mean, it's great news for, for the Democrats. I mean, Robinson is actually, he's the new dream candidate to run against. Back in 2018, I thought the Governor WOL.
I thought Scott Wagner was the dream candidate who could run. And we smoked him by 17 points. And then of course, Doug Macerato came on in 22, and that's the best kind of Republican candidate that you could buy in. And the Shapiro campaign spend millions of dollars to promote him as well, too.
But then Robinson's like, hey, hold my beer. And now, of course, Trump's not gonna walk back just because he's never gonna admit what a disaster that is. But it's nice to know that he's going to win probably as a Democratic governor. But I'm not sure the impact that will have at the top line.
But it would be wonderful and almost all game if Harris wins at North Carolina. But she's made North Carolina competitive already. And then after Robinson, now it's, we're in the best possible situation to win. Let me ask you about another topic.
The second apparent assassination attempt against former President Trump this week. This is what his running mate, J.D. vance had to say in the wake of it. Take a look.
The big difference between conservatives and liberals is that we have. No one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in the last couple of months, and two people now have tried to kill Donald Trump in the last couple of months. I'd say that's pretty strong evidence that the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and needs to cut this crap out. Somebody's gonna get hurt by it.
Senator, what's your response to Senator J.D. vance? I don't know who's actually listening to it. What Vance says.
It's been months already. No one's not really listening to him anymore. You know, he has developed a kind of reputation to say dumb things, pointless things, and offend everybody, and he's been picked as the most unpopular pick in history. But no one's listening to him.
I'm certainly not. And here we are right now. To the substance of his charge, though, he'd say. I'd say that's pretty strong evidence that the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and needs to cut this blank out.
How do you respond to that specific part of what he says? That's absolutely absurd. Every Democrat condemned the assassination attempts, and I did as well, too. And, you know, they're talking about eating the dogs and saying outlandish kind of things.
Now, let's just have a serious conversation about this election, not talking about the kind of empty, empty kind of rhetoric from somebody like J.D. vance. I want to ask you about something that Vice President Kamala Harris said this week. She was talking about gun ownership with Oprah Winfrey.
She said, quote, if somebody breaks into my house, they're going to get shot. You, Senator, are a gun owner. As the leader of a party that prides itself on advocating for gun safety, was it responsible for Vice President Harris to make those comments? Absolutely.
I think. I think the vast majority of Americans, if you had somebody breaking into your house that might be there to harm you, you probably have the right to shoot them. And I think that's the best. Majority of Americans would agree with that.
All right, let me talk about a big issue, another big issue, I should say, in your state, the issue of fracking. I know you've talked about this quite a bit. Vice President Harris, as you know, once supported a ban on fracking when she was running for president in 2020. She even sued the Obama administration to prevent fracking off California's coast.
Now she says she will not ban the practice as president, why should voters trust that that is really what the vice president believes? So strange why we just keep talking about fracking back in 2020. I said that that might be an issue, but it's not gonna be a defining issue. And now in 2024, we're still trying to talk about fracking.
The other side, they're talking about eating cats and geese and dogs and talking about how if Trump doesn't win, he said that you have to blame the Jews on that. And just absurd things, you know, like having a serious policy conversation on the other side is just absolutely on fire. And here's where we are. But.
And here we are also that it's going to be very close in Pennsylvania, and it's not going to be defined by fracking. Well, and what we are talking about, because, of course, it supported 120,000 jobs back in 2022. Let me read you some of what you have said about fracking. In 2016, you called it a stain on Pennsylvania.
In 2018, you said you don't support fracking at all. But then in 2022, you said you absolutely support fracking. Senator, what exactly do you like about fracking? Now, it's strange for some of weird gotcha, kind of taking quotes out of context.
And, you know, here I am now United States Senator, and I won by five points, a record margin back in 22. And again, it might be an issue in fracking. And I fully support fracking, so does the Vice President. And now, if you want to have a serious conversation about policy, then I would challenge Trump and Vance to have one other than talking about eating pets.
And we'll have plenty of questions for Senator Lindsey Graham, there's no doubt about that. But to the point, what do you now like about fracking? You say you're not going to ban it, you support it. Now they're eating dogs, they're eating cats again.
So, okay, yes. And any more on fracking? Well, I want to ask you about the Middle East. Actually, let's move on because I do want to get this in.
This week, as you know, a new front opened in the war in the Middle east, jeopardizing ceasefire talks. Senator Bernie Sanders accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of sabotaging a deal. Take a look what he said. Every time a deal appears close, Netanyahu moves the goalposts, introducing new demands and torpedoing the deal.
It is clear to me that Netanyahu is prolonging the war in order to cling to power. Senator, you have stood firmly behind Israel, but do you agree with any part of what your colleague Senator Sanders said there? No. Not at all.
And I want to be very clear. I thought what Israel chose to do about blowing up the pagers and then walking talkies and then after targeting and eliminating membership and leadership of Hezbollah, I absolutely support that. In fact, if anything, I love it. And Israel demonstrated that they will not allow terrorists not to be held accountable.
And I fully support that. And it's not about nothing that has what my colleague has said. All right. Senator Fetterman, it is always great to talk to you.
Really appreciate you being on this morning. When we come back, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina joins me next. Welcome back. And Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina joins me now.
Senator Graham, welcome back to MEET THE press. Happy anniversary. Thank you very much. They said it went last one year in the chair.
Thank you. Three and a half month old, that's for sure. Thank you for being here so frequently. Thank you for being here in person today.
Really appreciate it. Let's start talking about the battle. Gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina, Mark Robinson, of course, it's alleged that he put these posts up, very controversial, on a pornographic website. He says he didn't do it.
Former President Donald Trump spoke yesterday, North Carolina didn't mention him, has not dropped his endorsement. Senator, do you think that former President Trump should drop his endorsement to Mark Robinson? I think what's going to happen here is that he deserves a chance to defend himself. Mark Robinson, the charges are beyond unnerving.
If they're true, he's unfit to serve for office. If they're not true, he has the best lawsuit in the history of the country for libel. He's claiming they were artificially created and that CNN passed along to be true. Has NBC confirmed this?
Not yet. We're all looking into it. Well, so what I would do if I were him, I would hire me the best lawyer I could find. I'd sue the hell out of cnn because what they're saying about him is just unbelievable.
Now he needs to do more. In my view, he has a right to defend himself. He has an obligation to defend himself. This is hanging over his campaign.
Trump won in 2016 and 2020 when the governor candidate lost both times. I don't think this hurts Trump. But as to Robinson, he's a political zombie if he does not offer a defense to this that's credible. Senator, these allegations, the story came out on Friday.
He has had multiple days to defend himself. He has not produced one shred of evidence. And as you know, he's had plenty of other highly controversial comments in the past, including saying let's stop talking about Hitler and the Nazis. Do you think he could cause Trump North Carolina?
No, I really don't because Trump won when the governor candidate lost in 2016 and 2020. But here's what's important. I'm in South Carolina. I see the ads every 15 seconds.
This is a major allegation by major organization that needs to be addressed. He has not only a right to defend himself, but an obligation to defend himself. At the very least, should President Trump pull his endorsement or make it clear that he's distancing himself, I think what you're going to see happen here is Robinson's going to have to deal with this. There's nothing, no accusation involving Trump.
It's all about Robinson. Yes, a good question. Should every Republican in the country be held responsible for this guy? I would say no.
Is him, not me. It's not Trump. He's the one that supposedly said these things. He has a right to defend himself.
He needs to defend himself. All right, let's move on to some of your activity. This week you traveled to Nebraska, one of only two states that awards its electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner take all, that, as you know, could be decisive in this election. It awarded Joe Biden, for example, one electoral vote in the Omaha area back in 2020.
You met with state lawmaker to persuade them to change to a winner take all system. Here's what Senate Journey leader Chuck Schumer to say about this trip earlier today, earlier this week. Look, they're very worried about the election, as they should be. The American people every day see the contrast.
They can't win legitimately, so they always try to change the rules at the last minute. Senator, you've seen the results of our poll. Can Donald Trump win if you don't change the rules? This is really number one.
65% of the people in your poll say the country's on the wrong track. Who's best able to solve the crime problem? Trump by 6. Who's best on the economy?
Trump by 9. Inflation? Trump by 8. Border Trump by 21.
So what I get out of this poll on the things that matter most of the American people, Trump is winning decisively and head to head, he is not. Now I know why the Teamsters voted the way they did. The Teamsters have endorsed every Democratic candidate for president for the last 30 years except Harris. They must believe, like the American people, she is not good on the issues that matter.
Most of the Teamsters, that's the only explanation, is that she lost the endorsement that Teamsters for the first time in 30 years. Why? Because she's bad on issues they care about. Given what you're saying, though, if she's not good on these issues, why you need to change the rules in Nebraska?
I think Nebraska has been talking about this for years. It is a very close election. 63 days ago, Chuck Schumer led a coup to overthrow Joe Biden. And he's telling me or any other Republican what we should be doing.
If they change the law in Nebraska, it won't be on the phone in the middle of the night. It will be the democratic process. The entire federal delegation of Nebraska House members and two senators want this change. To my friends in Nebraska, that one electoral vote could be the difference between Harris being president or not.
And she's a disaster for Nebraska and the world. I hear you calling it a coup. Of course Democrats have the right to change the Middle East. What do you think chances are?
What's the over under this change actually happens in Nebraska? 50. 50, down to two people. Okay, let's go to the Middle east now.
The U.S. as you know, is trying to avoid an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon after frankly, a new front in this war opened up this week. And there are real concerns that Prime Minister Netanyahu will go into Lebanon as soon as next week. Should he pull back?
Should he de escalate? This is a dream scenario for Iran. They're trying to suck Bibi and Israel into a fight. October 7th was designed to stop normalization.
Trump did Abraham accords. Biden's been working to get Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. That's a nightmare for Iran. So October 7th was designed to stop that.
It was so horrific. Now you see front opening in the north. So here's what I would tell my friends in Israel. Do not give up on normalization of Saudi Arabia.
I know you got to deal with Hezbollah. There was an imminent attack. But two things. One or two things have to change in the Middle East.
We need to make game changing peace, which is reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel or game changing military strategy, go into Lebanon to establish a buffer zone. Won't work unless you hit Iran. To my friends in Israel, you're fighting the proxies. Fight the source, the great Satan, Iran.
To the Biden administration. You've let Iran run wild. You've given them $80 billion of relief on sanctions. They're rich, they're running wild.
And now's the time to hit the source of the problem, the Iranians. All right, let's talk about another headline this week, Donald Trump was speaking at an Israeli American Council event. He did make ways because he seemed to suggest that Jewish voters would be to blame if he doesn't win the election. Center listen what he said if I don't win this election and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens because at 40% that means 60% of the people are voting for the enemy.
The second gentleman, Doug Mhoff, said those comments were trafficking in tropes, scapegoating Jews. Is he right? How do you respond? I would tell President Trump that the Jewish American voters probably concerned about the same thing that all other voters are to the Democratic Party.
Why are you losing African American men? Why are you losing ground with minorities? Rather than blaming them, you're convince them to vote for Vice President Harris. My advice for President Trump is that the Jewish American voter, I'm sure they do care about Israel.
There's been no better friend of Israel. But talk about crime, talk about the economy, talk about inflation, talk about border. That's the way you persuade people in this country. We have an obligation to persuade people to vote for us.
Very quickly on Ukraine, the debate last week Donald Trump was asked if he wants Ukraine to win the war. Repeatedly pressed on this, he did not answer. What message does that send to Vladimir Putin that he couldn't say yes, I want Ukraine to win. What does winning look like?
Here's what I think will happen if President Trump wins, he will end this war. The biggest mistake the Biden administration has made, stopping natural gas exports to Europe. They were against the Keystone pipeline, Harris and for the north strength two pipelines. Senator, quickly because I'm almost out of time.
Does it concern you that he can't just say yes, I want to see. Does that not matter that Ukraine was invaded on Biden's watch? It concerns me that Iran's running while on Biden's watch it didn't happen on Trump's watch. Harrison Biden are disaster.
Ukraine was invaded by Russia. Russia Iran is running wild, wreaking havoc. So no, I am confident Donald Trump will change things. If you want the world to change and you'll like Paris, nothing's going to change.
I'm okay with the answer of not telling what winning looks like. I am confident he will not reward Putin. But here's what I would say to American people. If you think we're on the wrong track, you're right.
If you think Kamala Harris is going to change things, you're wrong. She has her fingerprints on Afghanistan. She said on the sidelines she boycotted BB speech. The Iranians see her as weak.
The Russians see her as weak. Do you think it's an accident? The world's on fire, the border is broken, inflation's through the roof. She's not going to change things.
She's going to make things worse. And that's what our poll shows. All right, Senator Lindsey Graham, thank you very much again for being here in person. Really appreciate it.
When we come back, Vice President Harris favorability rating rises 16 points in just two months. And she's winning the battle as the candidate who represents change. Our panel is next. Let's kick start your wellness journey with the craft TODAY workouts meal plans.
It's your fast track to a healthier you. And now during the exp members celebration, members to get an exclusive 50% off annual subscription. Head to xin.com membership to learn more. Xfinity Imagine that subscription automatically reduce each year at $60.99pl until cancel on the rans May 20, 2026.
Price is subject to change. Visit today.comxfinity for full on returns and details. Hey guys, Willie Geist here reminding you to check out the Sunday Sit down podcast. On this week's episode, I sit down with one of the biggest fans in the world, Bumper and Sons, as we get the boys together to talk about their new number one album, Prize Fight and the evolution of that irresistible foot stomping sound.
You can get our conversation for free wherever you download your podcasts. As the day wraps up, get the scoop on what's been happening with here's the Scoop, the new podcast for NBC News with your host Gazi Nasugya. We'll take a deep dive into today's top stories with NBC News's trusted journalists. It's a fresh take that's sharp, thoughtful and it's informative, bringing you closer to headlines and conversations that are shaping our world.
The front page, the Zeitgeist. Here's the scoop from NBC News. Listen daily on Amazon Music. Welcome back.
The panel is here. NBC News chief White House correspondent Peter Alexander, co anchor of Weekend Today, Amy Walter, editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy of Florida, president of the Center Aisle Coalition and former Republican Congressman Carlos Crabello. Florida we have a Florida contingent here. Thanks to all of you for being here.
Peter, I want you to kick this off and let's delve into some of these really stunning numbers that we're seeing. Vice President Kamala Harris with a 16 point swing up 16 points from where she was in July in her favorability rating, unprecedented in our poll. What is the Harris campaign strategy to keep building this momentum? Well, I think for what I don't know that they necessarily trust that these numbers and numbers are going to rely on.
They still believe this is going to be very tight in the states where this matters most right now. And at that point, in particular for my conversations with those in the Harris campaign, they're very focused on those hard to reach voters right now. In particular, they describe them to me as people who are younger, they are mostly male and they're racially diverse right now. In particular, they're trying to have multiple touch points as they describe it, with these people, not just to introduce themselves to them once, to have them see their ads once, but as many times as they can.
And to that point, they're trying to get them where they are. College football games. I was watching some football yesterday, big win for Michigan, I have to say. There were several Harris ads you saw throughout the course of yesterday also.
Why would you press that? They first show up on sports betting sites as well. One other group to watch, Chris, and worth noting, non college educated white women as well. They think that they can gain some ground.
It is about finding voters in all of those unique spaces that he was talking about. Amy, one of the other big headlines is that Harris is up by nine points. When we ask who is the change candidate, she is currently in the White House. So it's made this argument what's behind that?
What are your key takeaways? Well, my key takeaways from this is that she's been able to change this from a race that is a referendum on Joe Biden to a race that is a referendum on Donald Trump. And what's remarkable to me beyond the favorable numbers, when you look at the questions of who do you think could serve as commander in chief, who do you think will be capable and effective? She has been able to not just move into the positive column there, but she's on the issue of competent and effective.
She's seen she's moved 23 points from where Biden was. And this was a big advantage for Trump going into the election when Biden was the nominee. So the ability once again to make this, as I said, to make this race now not so much about the Biden administration but about Trump himself. And look, I think the senator said this as well, that where Trump does have advantage continues to be the economy.
But even on the economy, that nine point advantage, not only is it much smaller than he had over Biden, but it's basically tied with where the NBC poll had this race in 2020 on the issue of the economy. It does look a lot like 2020 if you look at these numbers. Stephanie, one of the things that's so fascinating is that when you think about the issue of the economy, Vice President Harris has been rolling out some for economic policies, but she's not filling in every single blank for voters. Is this, do you think, a strategy that's working or does she need to be more out?
She obviously did on the opra, but does she need to do more? I think the Harris campaign in a very short amount of time have run an incredibly disciplined campaign and it's working for them. They've introduced her to the voters. They really focus on her values and they sprinkled in a little bit of policy.
But at the end of the day, voters vote on values. They want to know that this candidate cares about them, can feel their pain and has the vision for leadership. And based on the numbers so far, that is resonating with voters. And so while swing voters still say they want more policy, do they really?
And when you get into policy details, you're getting into the weeds and you lose your top line messaging. So I think more of the same. And Carlos, all of this comes as we are, of course, tracking this controversy swirling around North Carolina's gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson. Senator Lindsey Graham said he thinks Trump can still win North Carolina.
What say you? What are your sources telling you about how much concern there is inside Democratic circles about this? Well, Chris, and I think the word discipline is really the one we should focused on here. We look at these numbers and the change is drastic.
But is it really that surprising? I mean, Donald Trump's campaign has been surrounded by so many distractions and this one in North Carolina is just the most recent ones. We heard Senator Graham, we always hear his surrogates on TV pleading with him to focus on the issues, on the economy, on immigration. He has forfeited his lead on these issues.
Not to take anything away from Vice President Harris. She has run a very disciplined campaign. But Donald Trump has done the opposite. And this controversy in North Carolina, look, they can still win North Carolina, they might, but they're going to have to spend limited resources there.
And that gives another advantage to the Harris, just reminders who talk about North Carolina. This is to say that Joe Biden lost by 1.3% four years ago. This is a close state right now about Mark Robinson, this wasn't just predictable. This was predicted and Talking to smart Republicans in North Carolina just yesterday, they asked you questions right now, have we seen everything?
Remember Madison Cawthorn a couple of years ago? This thing took not just days, it took weeks. This could marinate. We could be dealing with this for a while now.
And separately, how is this going to impact Donald Trump? Republicans are going to vote for Donald Trump. Democrats are going to vote for Kamala Harris. But there are 440,000 new unaffiliated voters in North Carolina since 2020.
One of the thing to keep in mind when you think about North Carolina, there are more HBCU historically black college undergrads in the state of North Carolina than any other state in the country. I mean, what about that? What about those figures that Peter Slice's unaffiliated voters who are up for grabs right now? Yeah.
So you look at North Carolina, it's true, with 74,000 votes, the difference in 2020 between Biden winning and Biden losing. And I don't know, I'm always skeptical to think that there is reverse coattails. In other words, at the bottom of the ticket impacts, top of the ticket. Where I think it becomes a factor, though young voters have not, if you, if you look at the data, they have not turned out at the rate that Democrats would need them to be in order to really give them that advantage and issue that's going to pull them out.
In other words, it's not that this is the issue that they're going to turn against Trump while they're already voting. It's is seeing this one more reason for them to show up and vote. And while they're there, they vote for talking to Republicans about candidate quality for about 15 years. All right, we'll come back.
We'll have a lot more with a panel, a lot more to chew on. But when we come back, the threat of political violence. Tags over the 2024 race, former President Trump is not the first Secret Service protecting to be the target of multiple assassination attempts. Army press minute is next.
Welcome back. Former President Trump survived the second apparent assassination attempt in just over two months, a shocking event for a nation all too familiar with repeated threats on the lives of its leaders. President Gerald ford also survived two attempts within weeks. In 1975, a member of the Charles Manson family cult tried to assassinate Ford in Sacramento.
Seventeen days later, he faced another attempt in San Francisco. William E. Simon joined Meet the Press two days after the attempt. He was the Secretary of the treasury, which at the time meant he oversaw the US Secret Service.
New York Times editorial yesterday stated that quote, it is startling after the Secret Service tightening of its procedures in the wake of the assassinations of the 1960s that a vociferous member of the Manson family would wander so easily into the path of a strolling president. What's your response to that comment? Do you have any plans for reviewing the Secret Service procedures? The Secret Service procedures are as adequate as any procedures can be in carrying out their duties of protecting the various people that they protect by law and they carried out in a way that I think is as professional, if not more professional than any other agency in the world carrying out these duties.
When we come back, early voting is already underway, but are Republicans looking to make some last minute changes to election rules? More with the panel next. And welcome back. The panel is still here.
Peter, you had a chance to speak exclusively with the first lady this week. You talked about the transition of power. She actually let's play a little bit of that interview and then get your reaction on the other side. I think we have to come together.
I think we have to vote as Americans. You know, that's a right that we've been given and I think we have to take advantage of that and then we have to have a peaceful transfer of power. What was your takeaway from what you told this was the first time we had a chance to speak to the first lady since her husband got out of this race about his decision. She said I am totally at peace and so is he.
On that she acknowledged a bit a of relief that he doesn't have the weight on him that he has as presidential candidate. Now he's been in politics for so many years. Finally he can help support another candidate in some form. Also spoke about political violence a bit, was expressing her gratitude and praise for the Secret Service for the job they've done, saying that she does not feel any fear.
The one thing I will say in terms of reporting little nugget from speaking to her team over the course of this last week is that they reminded me that she is a homegrown girl from Philadelphia and that you will soon see her on the trail for Kamala Harris in her hometown of Phil. That is a good nugget. All right. Well, we will look for that, Stephanie.
You know, Peter's conversation comes as we are doing all this reporting on what's happening inside the state. I just talked to Senator Lindsey Grave about Nebraska. Well, let's start off by talking about Georgia where the state election board just voted 3 to 2 to basically say that all votes that are machine counted have to be hand counted. Counted as well.
What are the implications of this? Brad Raffensperger saying this could create chaos. Yeah. So our system is antiquated and difficult to understand because it's different from one state to the next.
And by having Georgia have to hand count ballots, it doubles down on that antiquated part. But it also creates opportunity to sow misinformation. We found in the January 6th committee that those differences between the way states count votes and when they announce were used to sow doubt on the outcome of the election. And when average Americans were lied to by powerful people, they showed up on January 6th and engaged in acts of political violence.
And I think we really have to brace ourselves knowing that there's quite a few number of lawsuits already filed around all elements of voting. And it feels like there's a foundation being laid for contesting the outcome of this election. Carlos, what do you make of it? So look, this is probably going to make the post election messy again and messy with risk.
Right. But can we talk about what it does now to the race? It makes the race about the past. It makes Donald Trump's campaign about the 2020 election.
This is why Republicans didn't have a red wave in 2022, because 2022 was about 2020 and Donald Trump is making 2024 about 2020. So this is yet another example of how lack of discipline is costing Donald Trump and how the focus isn't on the issues where he has a clear advantage. Well, and that's that be careful of what you ask for. The more the conversation is about are they going to change the rules of last minute in Nebraska, they're changing the rules in Georgia.
Does that encourage those who maybe weren't interested in voting for Kamala Harris, but they really didn't want to see Donald Trump elected. Now they come out to vote anytime that Donald Trump's in the news. Yes, it helps motivate his face, but boy does it Republicans in Georgia. Right.
Well, that certainly has an effect on them, too. And you did this in the Senate races and Democrats end up winning those Senate seats in Georgia. We should say there's a very delicate alliance right now between Kemp and Trump and anything could potentially send it in the wrong direction. But Peter, let's talk about Nebraska.
You heard Senator Lindsey Graham defend his trip there and say, look, he has every right to be there. The Democrats changed. It was at the top of their tippet. But the optics of this, does it not essentially suggest that Trump is feeling really nervous?
Let's be clear, this would be a last minute change, the way he's been for the last three decades here. And let's also be clear that right now they don't have the votes that they need to make this change right now, even though Donald Trump is directly engaging in this process in some form. But the big picture reminder here is that every electoral vote could matter this go around. Right.
So this is still to be a tight race of those slim margins. A little change like that could be a difference. Well, it's also a sign of a campaign that's been on defense and continues to be on defense. I remember the last time that it felt as if the Trump campaign were actually playing offense.
This is what you do when you feel like, well, we may not be winning. And so that's a sign of a confident campaign. Yeah. I mean, Stephanie, you know, Lindsey Graham said chances are 50, 50.
Peter knows they just don't have the votes right now. At the same time, Democrats are watching this closely because that one electoral vote was important to Joe Biden's victory in 2020. Could be decisive depending on how the chips fall. It could be decisive if it gets thrown back to the House.
All the permutations of what happens if the vote has to go to the House, where it's one state, one vote. So there's a lot about the way that our elections are structured and the way the elections are playing out this cycle that leads me to believe that might be a really sporty few months after November 5th. And Carlos, just looking forward, given all of this and given what Amy is saying about former President Trump effectively being on defense right now, what do you think the strategy is to get on offense? Is there one based on your con?
Look, in some ways he should maybe emulate what Vice President Harris has done. She has pivoted to the center. A true and tested strategy in American politics. Donald Trump keeps pivoting to the past.
He keeps trying to max his base. His base. I mean, it's powerful. We can't underestimate him.
He can still win this race, no question. But his base has fallen short three general elections in a row. He has to grow from his base and he's doing nothing to achieve that. And our poll yet again shows what is shaping up to be the historic gender gap.
Amy. Right. And we don't know exactly who is going to turn out. And that is the question, if any of us could know that today, of who is going to show up and vote.
But who's the most motivated is an important question. But then you ask a question I don't think you had it on your poll that I've seen in other polls asking voters who they think will win. And before Biden got the race, not surprisingly, most voters saying they thought that Donald Trump was going to win. In polling that's been coming out now, Harris is seen as the more likely victor, which tells you a little bit about, once again, that the agenda in terms of who's controlling it has shifted appreciably to Harris's benefit.
And I think it's notable, too, the number of new registrations that have registered to vote. And that's bringing new people into the political process, which is healthy. And most of those people came, that bump came on the Democratic heels. All right, guys, great conversation.
When you're the press. Congratulations. Thank you. Thank you all for being here for this big Sunday and being a part of it.
Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you. That is all for today.
Thank you for watching. We will be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press, Everyone. I'm Dylan Dryer, co host of the third hour of TODAY and mom to three wild boys. I've learned a lot my years as a parent, mostly that I don't have it all figured out yet.
And I'm not the only one. This is my new podcast, the Parent Chat. Each week I sit down with someone new, run this conversation and real world advice about parenting. I am over here just like winging it.
Hey, I'm trying not to be my own kid if I'm gonna give you advice on how to screw yourself. There's a parent chat on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.