Shiftheads - Prediction Markets Are Not Investing. It's Betting With Extra Steps

Prediction markets are showing up inside Canadian banking apps, and Vincent Gregoire, Canada Research Chair in Finance and Technology at HEC Montreal, unpacks what changes once real money and real regulation get involved. The line between investing and gambling turns out to be thinner than the app makes it look. Bank employees already trade under strict rules, and Vincent explains how regulators are quietly extending that same net to these platforms. Signing up does not mean staying anonymous, since regulators already know exactly who works in finance, and offshore alternatives remain one VPN away regardless. Professional trading firms are already moving into these markets, and Vincent lays out why that shifts the odds against anyone without an edge. His advice for treating prediction markets comes down to one blunt line, and it is not about strategy. Topics: prediction markets, bank trading restrictions, offshore platforms, financial regulation, HEC Montreal GUEST: Vincent Gregoire | @‌vincentgregoire Originally aired on 2026-09-03