Shipbuilding in a Supercycle with Dan Gifford

Richard Matthews interviews Dan Gifford on the newbuildings market, which remains very strong—especially tankers—with a major VLCC and Suezmax ordering wave (nearly 40 VLCCs ordered so far this year and more in the pipeline). They explain that newbuild prices are being supported by historically high modern secondhand values, limited ships for sale, tight shipyard capacity (Korean yards booked up to 3.5 years forward), and ongoing equipment bottlenecks such as main engines. Dan expects prices to stay firm and sees “second-wave” demand from owners who delayed ordering but now face fleet renewal needs, with delivery slots stretching into 2028–2029. They discuss activity in other sectors (Newcastlemax bulker orders due to an overaged fleet; containers cooling; LNG interest returning) and note that many owners sell ships at high prices and reinvest into newbuilds despite the speculative nature of returns. The episode also covers yard capacity expansions, the impact of US policy proposals and earlier USTR concerns on a shift toward Korean yards, and the reduced focus on decarbonization/dual-fuel ordering due to high premiums. 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast00:24 Meet Dan Gifford00:35 VLCC Ordering Surge02:07 Newbuild Prices Explained04:33 FOMO and Fleet Renewal06:31 Bulker Market Check07:57 Speculation and Bubble Talk13:21 Yard Capacity and Bottlenecks16:33 US Policy and Geopolitical Risk20:21 Decarbonization Takes Backseat25:19 Conclusion