Short: The 'big shift' meets the 'breaking point'

In the wake of a federal election that saw the Conservatives defeated once again, despite a notable increase in support, political columnist and author John Ibbitson joins West of Centre Short to argue a deeper political realignment is underway.In conversation with host Rob Brown, Ibbitson revisits the central thesis of The Big Shift — the 2013 book he co-wrote with pollster Darrell Bricker — which outlines how political power in Canada has been shifting away from the traditional “Laurentian elite” of central Canada toward a growing Conservative coalition rooted in the West and among suburban immigrant voters.While the 2025 vote produced another Liberal minority, Ibbitson argues the result was less about domestic dynamics than about external disruption. He points to U.S. president Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation, which he says triggered a voter stampede — particularly among older suburban Canadians — toward Liberal leader Mark Carney, whom Ibbitson firmly places within the Laurentian tradition, despite his Edmonton roots.Still, Ibbitson believes the demographic and cultural trends outlined in The Big Shift remain intact. In this episode, he explores the rising influence of Western Canada, evolving immigrant voter patterns in key regions like the 905, the weakening of the NDP, and the potential for a realigned progressive coalition. He argues these shifts could contribute to a growing instability in the country — marked by both horizontal divisions (regional discontent in Alberta and Quebec) and vertical ones (a widening generational split in political values).