Should You Run the Math Before You Bet on a Big Strategy?

Most teams pick a bold strategy before they run the only math that matters: what the job costs today versus the real floor for that same job. That ratio is the Physics Gap. When it’s large, a structural bet can earn the capital. When it’s thin, you kill the bet before capital moves — not after the invoice.In this episode: how to run cost-versus-floor in plain English (at the job, or at the step when steps vary a lot), when the answer is go vs stop, a Meridian-style case near 6.3× that clears the bar, and a deviation-drafting case that collapses to a thin kill. One subtractive move: delete the Copilot-on-an-already-efficient step (or the benchmarking workshop that invents the gap with peer percents). Fill one page before you commit.Get the sheet* Free Strategy Bet Math Checklist (lightweight ~15 min): https://whop.com/checkout/plan_ygpmerlht8ScJ* Full Strategy Bet Math Sheet ($19): https://whop.com/checkout/plan_nJg7APWYMdWvA* Coaching session (when the Full sheet isn’t enough): https://whop.com/checkout/ch_Yqj4lJFboaEIC77/Is your organization interested in differentiated innovation? The world is changing quickly. If you’re not adapting to those changes, you’re not innovating. Seeking reassurance from consultants fails, nearly always (sometimes they get lucky). I work with organizations who are serious about attacking problems using first principles. Many have been burned once, and they don’t want it to happen again. Is that you? (my availability is limited). Book an appointment: Click hereEmail me: [email protected] me: +1 678-824-2789Join the community: Click hereFollow me on 𝕏: https://x.com/mikeboysenArticles - jtbd.one - De-Risk Your Next Big IdeaResearch - studio.jtbd.one/researchApps - studio.jtbd.one/appsSlaying the Sacred Cows of Innovation This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jtbd.one/subscribe