EPISODE · Mar 3, 2025 · 28 MIN
Should you trust your gut?
from Nudge · host Phill Agnew
Golf players, investors and CEOs perform better if they take their time. Or do they? Today, Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer reveals why intuition often outperforms complex analysis and how shortcuts can lead to smarter decisions in business, sports, and investing. You’ll learn: Why gut instinct can beat data-driven decisions (feat. insights from Gerd Gigerenzer). How firefighters, CEOs, and handball players make better choices under pressure. The dangers of overthinking—why too much time can worsen decisions (feat. 2004 golf study). Why simple rules predict outcomes better than complex models (feat. Wimbledon & NFL studies). --- Sign up to my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/ Watch Nudge on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgepodcast/ Gerd’s book Smart Management: https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262548014/smart-management/ --- Sources: Baum, J. R., & Wally, S. (2003). Strategic decision speed and firm performance. Strategic Management Journal, 24(11), 1107–1129. Beilock, S. L., Bertenthal, B. I., McCoy, A. M., & Carr, T. H. (2004). Haste does not always make waste: Expertise, direction of attention, and speed versus accuracy in performing sensorimotor skills. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 11(2), 373–379. DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy? The Review of Financial Studies, 22(5), 1915–1953. Dörfler, V., & Eden, C. (2017). Becoming a Nobel Laureate: Patterns of a journey to the highest level of expertise. AoM 2017: 77th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, Atlanta, GA, August 4-8. Easterbrook, G. (2010). TMQ’s annual bad predictions review. ESPN. Eslam sdt Henry. (2018). Best football trick world cup 2006 Jens Lehmann [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/LRAOEWAbO00 Johnson, J., & Raab, M. (2003). Take the first: Option-generation and resulting choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 215–229. Klein, G. A. (1999). Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press. Reb, J., Luan, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2024). Smart management: How simple heuristics help leaders make good decisions in an uncertain world. The MIT Press. Serwe, S., & Frings, C. (2006). Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19(4), 321–332. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.530 West, D. C., Acar, O. A., & Caruana, A. (2020). Choosing among alternative new product development projects: The role of heuristics. Psychology & Marketing, 37(12), 1719–1736. https://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21397
What this episode covers
Golf players, investors and CEOs perform better if they take their time. Or do they? Today, Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer reveals why intuition often outperforms complex analysis and how shortcuts can lead to smarter decisions in business, sports, and investing. You’ll learn: Why gut instinct can beat data-driven decisions (feat. insights from Gerd Gigerenzer). How firefighters, CEOs, and handball players make better choices under pressure. The dangers of overthinking—why too much time can worsen decisions (feat. 2004 golf study). Why simple rules predict outcomes better than complex models (feat. Wimbledon & NFL studies). --- Sign up to my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/ Watch Nudge on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgepodcast/ Gerd’s book Smart Management: https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262548014/smart-management/ --- Sources: Baum, J. R., & Wally, S. (2003). Strategic decision speed and firm performance. Strategic Management Journal, 24(11), 1107–1129. Beilock, S. L., Bertenthal, B. I., McCoy, A. M., & Carr, T. H. (2004). Haste does not always make waste: Expertise, direction of attention, and speed versus accuracy in performing sensorimotor skills. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 11(2), 373–379. DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy? The Review of Financial Studies, 22(5), 1915–1953. Dörfler, V., & Eden, C. (2017). Becoming a Nobel Laureate: Patterns of a journey to the highest level of expertise. AoM 2017: 77th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, Atlanta, GA, August 4-8. Easterbrook, G. (2010). TMQ’s annual bad predictions review. ESPN. Eslam sdt Henry. (2018). Best football trick world cup 2006 Jens Lehmann [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/LRAOEWAbO00 Johnson, J., & Raab, M. (2003). Take the first: Option-generation and resulting choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 215–229. Klein, G. A. (1999). Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press. Reb, J., Luan, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2024). Smart management: How simple heuristics help leaders make good decisions in an uncertain world. The MIT Press. Serwe, S., & Frings, C. (2006). Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19(4), 321–332. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.530 West, D. C., Acar, O. A., & Caruana, A. (2020). Choosing among alternative new product development projects: The role of heuristics. Psychology & Marketing, 37(12), 1719–1736. https://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21397
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Should you trust your gut?
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