SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 202610:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer