Signals & Noise: Our case for 3 rate hikes this year

In this episode of Signals and Noise, Aditya Bhave, Head of US Economic Research at BofA Securities, lays out the case for three 25bp Fed rate hikes in September, October, and December. He explains why current policy appears too accommodative given the combination of steady labor markets and elevated core inflation, and why recent softness in CPI data has not changed our view. Aditya also addresses the three most common challenges to our forecast: whether inflation is truly a problem, whether Chair Warsh will ultimately follow through on a hawkish stance, and whether markets are underestimating the amount of tightening needed to meaningfully impact financial conditions. Along the way, he breaks down the role of tariffs, geopolitical shocks, core PCE inflation, and Fed credibility in shaping the outlook for rates and markets.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.