Signals & Noise: Updating the Outlook—Growth Up and Policy Tightening Ahead

In this episode of Signals & Noise, we unpack the latest midyear updates to global economic forecasts, including a modest upgrade to global growth and a downward revision to inflation. Despite easing headline inflation, policy remains tight, with our economists now expecting a more hawkish Federal Reserve than consensus. We explore the drivers behind this shift, including resilient labor market dynamics and persistent core inflation. We also discuss the impact of the Iran deal on energy markets, the role of AI-driven exports in supporting global growth, particularly in Asia, and why the U.S. economy continues to outperform other developed markets.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.