Silver's Story So Far

Housekeeping: ***Support Independent Media. Things are Happening Faster NowFeatured Posts on News Sites :Scottsdale Mint — SG: Follow the Gold-Flow Monster Zerohedge — Goldman: Gold Dealers Gamma-Squeezed in January Yahoo — The Cost of Regime Change X.com — Silver Fund Revalued, Investors to be Made Whole Featured Analysis: News & Analysis:ICYMIComing Soon/ Chat: * Chats for Technicals, Miners, Options and Founders are all open nowData on Deck: GDP, PCE, FED Minutes* MONDAY, FEB. 16 None scheduled, President’s Day* TUESDAY, FEB. 17 8:30 amEmpire State manufacturing survey* WEDNESDAY, FEB. 18 2:00 pm Minutes of Fed’s January FOMC meeting* THURSDAY, FEB. 19 Pending home sales* FRIDAY, FEB. 20 GDP, PCE, and moreCharts and Final Market Check: ***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix internLet’s step back and put the last several months into perspective. We’ve just closed what I would call Chapter One of a historic run in silver and gold, with silver as the focal point.In August 2025, amid tariff turmoil, the United States made a decisive move and designated silver a critical mineral. When you label something critical, you create the conditions for hoarding. Governments must secure supply while building the capacity to produce more.The closest parallels are uranium and lithium. Those markets suggest that over a four-year window, silver trading between 140 and 212 is entirely plausible, driven largely by sovereign accumulation.Silver is unusual. There is metal in our hemisphere. What we lack is sufficient refining and manufacturing to turn raw material into finished silver at scale.Once silver was designated critical, it rallied aggressively from 40 to 50. At 50 it stalled. Producers, having missed the last move and paid for it, hedged heavily. At the same time, retail holders flooded the market with junk silver. Strong demand met surprise supply. The market bifurcated.Then Thanksgiving and Black Friday.China, facing supply chain disruptions in Latin America, attempted to take delivery of U.S. silver. JPMorgan withdrew metal from the market and likely deferred delivery. Industrial users began to panic. China and India sought finished silver abroad, reportedly bidding 80 when spot was 70. That established real value between 70 and 80.Then Western investment demand woke up. Gold was holding above 5,000. Silver looked cheap. ETF buying began. Meanwhile, China needed silver to keep its solar industry functioning. Without silver, that machine stops. Silver moved from 70 to 80, then Chinese retail demand ignited. The long-only fund was inundated. Silver surged from 80 to 100. FOMO spread in the West.Around 70, American bullion banks flipped from short to long. Consistent with U.S. accumulation, but faster than expected.Then the spike to 120. The market seized. A structural flaw in the Chinese long-only fund was exposed. The fund was tamped down, disassembled and reassembled. Momentum collapsed. Silver corrected nearly 30 percent in a day and faded from headlines.Now we trade around 75. The froth is gone. Industrial demand proved it could operate profitably with finished silver at 80. That anchors value. Could we see 60 in a recession? Yes. Could we see 90 in a squeeze? Yes. But the specific conditions that produced 120 have been addressed.From here, silver likely resumes a relentless structural trend higher, targeting 150 to 250 into 2030. In between, it behaves like a regular market. Overbought at 90. Oversold at 65. Deeply oversold at 50, likely in a recession.The chains of decades of repression have cracked. They may tamp it down, but they are not extinguishing the fire.That’s where we’ve been, where we are, and where silver is likely headed. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe