Six months down, six more to go

Global forces are driving significant structural changes to the economy, creating challenges and opportunities. While tariffs and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty, we remain confident about growth prospects for 2025. A key reason for this optimism is that the changes are neither purely tariff-related nor purely negative. Three positive changes are easing banking regulation, new Crypto regulations, and the AI compute cycle. We are particularly positive about New Zealand’s outlook, supported by strong global demand for dairy, lower interest rates, and attractive market valuations, making it an appealing investment destination for a patient investor in this evolving environment. Outside of the farming sector, the local economic recovery is slow to emerge but the signs show that there is an underlying recovery happening. In the United States, the current economic setup is proving more robust than expected and this is supporting market performance. Equally, Europe and China have overdelivered relative to the downbeat sentiment. While tariff-related disruptions and corporate caution may temper growth, we believe corporate earnings will remain resilient. Overall, we see continued opportunities despite these structural shifts. This week, Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to review the first half of 2025 and discuss what might lie ahead for the remainder of the year.