Skymet Monsoon Forecast 2026: Shifting Rainfall Patterns Ahead - Deficit Likely in Many Regions | EP-75

In this podcast, Skymet’s Jatin Singh (MD), GP Sharma (President), and Mahesh Palawat (Vice President) present a detailed analysis of the Monsoon 2026 forecast.The team projects that the monsoon is likely to be around 6% below normal, placing it in the below-normal category (90%–95% of the Long Period Average), while 96%–104% is considered normal.A key driver this season is the expected development of El Niño, which may begin with the onset of the monsoon and intensify by late July. While June may not see significant impact, monsoon weakness is likely to set in from July onward, with August and September expected to witness notably reduced rainfall.Interestingly, after years of subdued rainfall, East and Northeast India—including Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and northeastern states—may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In contrast, Northwest, Central, and parts of West India—Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra—are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.Overall, nearly 60% of the country could face reduced rainfall due to El Niño conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently expected to remain neutral to slightly positive, but may not be strong enough to offset El Niño’s adverse impact, keeping the monsoon under pressure.