Slower Job Growth, Lower Oil, and the Mortgage Market Waiting Game

Housing starts fell sharply in May, dropping to their lowest annualized pace since 2020. What could that mean for housing supply, home prices, buyer competition, and mortgage rates? In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut breaks down the latest housing construction and employment reports. Building permits came in near expectations at approximately 1.4 million annualized units, but housing starts fell roughly 15% to an annualized pace near 1.18 million. Ed explains that the country needs significantly more new homes each year to keep up with household formation and population growth. When construction slows, fewer new homes reach the market. If mortgage rates move lower and demand rises, buyers may find themselves competing for an even smaller supply of available properties. Ed also covers: Mortgage pricing improving by approximately four basis points The 10-year Treasury near 4.44% Oil prices moving lower Why lower oil does not immediately erase inflation The Federal Reserve meeting A possible Middle East peace agreement The Strait of Hormuz reopening without tolls Weekly ADP job growth slowing Why some layoffs may not be related to artificial intelligence The buy-now-and-refinance-later strategy The episode's central message is simple: rates can change, but the number of available homes may remain limited. Buyers should consider the entire market, not just the current interest rate. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage updates, housing data, economic insight, and real estate news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #HousingStarts #BuildingPermits #HousingShortage #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #TenYearTreasury #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #HomeBuyingTips #NewHomeConstruction #HousingSupply #HomebuyerCompetition #ADPJobs #OilPrices #Inflation #BuyNowRefinanceLater #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate