Smart Money Is On The Wrong Side Of Bitcoin

Michael Sullivan joins the show to explain why he published the most bullish piece of his bear market at $63K, and why Bitcoin ripped 15% in 48 hours right after. Michael spent thirteen years as a fintech engineer and writes fiction on the side, and he's turned both into a methodology: measuring the emotion in how Bitcoiners actually talk, cohort by cohort, week by week. His argument is that when every trader is bored, fearful, and rotating into AI and quantum, that isn't a bear signal. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 0:21 From boredom to a 15% move in 48 hours 2:34 Why apathy produces the biggest moves 5:27 The trader cohort and the rotation to AI and quantum 7:35 The price heat map: nobody talking about price 9:55 Bessent, liquidity, and why narratives get rewritten 12:26 From fintech engineer and novelist to language analysis 15:50 What he actually measures 19:13 Signal versus noise: bots, aggregators, and cohorting by hand 22:15 Why MSTR holders got more convicted 25:51 Fundamentalists versus capitalists 28:40 The treasury investor is a different investor 31:59 Modeling institutional sentiment 34:56 Why X is the highest-signal source 36:29 BIP 110 and the echo chamber 40:52 mNAV is sentiment 44:52 STRC narrative volatility 49:08 The bear case: what would flip him 50:38 Fading the four-year cycle 54:50 Is the four-year cycle dead? 57:14 Where to follow Michael 🎙️ Featured Guest: Michael Sullivan — author of Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly, fintech engineer, and novelist Kalshi Perps Sign up at https://kalshi.com/p/bitcointreasuries Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Leverage amplifies both potential gains and potential losses, and losses can exceed the amount deposited. Leverage limits are determined by KalshiEX LLC or the FCM based on its own risk assessment and each customer's individual risk profile, and are subject to change. Perpetual Futures are listed on Kalshi Ex LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and may be traded directly as an exchange member or through an approved broker. This video is sponsored by Kalshi. 🤝 SUPPORT OUR SHOW: BitGo is the institutional-grade digital asset infrastructure trusted by thousands of institutions worldwide. A publicly traded company on the NYSE, BitGo offers regulated custody, OTC trading, financing, and settlement under one roof — and holds a federally chartered national bank license from the OCC. Learn more at https://bit.ly/bitGo Arch Lending offers the most transparent Bitcoin-backed borrowing experience in crypto — industry-leading rates from 8.49%, qualified custody, no rehypothecation, and verifiable segregated addresses. Simple terms and public pricing at every size. Learn more at https://bit.ly/archlending XCE Connecting Excellence Group is the UK's listed Bitcoin treasury recruitment company — placing senior talent into Bitcoin companies globally and helping operating businesses build on a Bitcoin standard. Learn more at https://bit.ly/XCEio Hemi — Activate compliant Bitcoin yield without leaving custody. Built by Bitcoin OG Jeff Garzik, Hemi is the only blockchain that embeds a full Bitcoin node inside an Ethereum node for true Bitcoin finality. Follow them at https://twitter.com/@hemi_xyz and learn more at https://hemi.xyz