SMP 216: The Solar Policy Crossroads: Federal Challenges and State Rollbacks

Episode Overview This episode dives deep into the evolving solar landscape—covering key state-level policy battles, rising resistance to distributed solar, the latest federal tax package in Congress, and the long term trends in the solar industry. Fox Swim, Senior Solar Industry Researcher at Aurora Solar, shares expertise on policy, utility rates, and resiliency-minded markets.   Key Themes & Highlights Aurora Solar & Fox’s Expertise Aurora provides industry-leading solar design and sales software globally.   State-Level Anti-Solar Trends Utilities favor centralized generation, clashing with distributed energy advocates.   California’s AB 942 aims to end grandfathered NEM/NEM 2 contracts when homes are sold, pushing owners into less favorable NEM 3 tariffs—effectively breaking existing contracts.   Resiliency & Distributed Generation Extreme weather, aging grid infrastructure, and power instability are driving demand for solar + storage. Distributed generation is seen as a smarter, faster, and more resilient solution than central utility models. Virtual battery programs in states like Connecticut are emerging as positive examples.   Federal Tax Bill & IRA Disruptions The recent House tax bill introduces critical threats:   Elimination of IRA incentives (including ITC, storage, and battery credits). “Fiat” sourcing restrictions targeting Chinese-manufactured solar components, potentially nullifying battery and panel subsidies. Fox warns of an unplanned “solar winter” where many small players may fold, though core demand won’t vanish. Emphasis is shifting toward resilience and independence—not just ROI.   2025 Aurora Solar Snapshot Insights (Backed by Aurora’s data on ~12.5 million projects, surveys of 1,000+ homeowners, 1,000 professionals, and 500+ businesses) Resilience over ROI: 76% of homeowners view solar as a good investment (up from 43% in 2023)  Financing shifts: Third‑party ownership (leases/PPAs) are growing; battery demand surges with 78% installers seeing increased interest  Bipartisan appeal: Solar cuts across party lines—Republicans, Democrats, and Independents all value solar and IRA  Trust challenges: Installer mistrust doubled—44% of homeowners find trustworthy companies hard to identify  Motivations revealed: Top drivers: bill savings, energy independence, environmental impact (>50% cite environment as a top-3 reason)    Tactical Takeaways for Mavericks Strengthen Trust – Improve transparency and contract clarity; be proactive about ethical sales practices. Refocus Messaging – Highlight solar + storage for resilience and independence—especially in disaster-prone regions. Engage Politically – Contact local/state reps, especially around bills like North Carolina’s ITC reinstatement. Diversify Revenue – Build resilience offerings or pivots like community solar and virtual battery programs. Advocacy & Data – Join efforts with industry groups (SEIA, ACORE), and use Aurora’s regional data in policymaker discussions.   Quotes from the Interview “76% of homeowners now say solar is a smart investment—it used to be 43%!”   “Installer trust has tanked: 44% of homeowners find it hard to pick a dependable provider.”   “Solar isn’t just about ROI anymore—it’s energy independence and resilience.”   Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy and he is also an advisor for several solar startup companies.  He has extensive project origination, development, and financial experience in the renewable energy industry and in the environmental commodities market.   This includes initial site evaluation, permitting, financing, sourcing equipment, and negotiating the long-term energy and environmental commodities off-take agreements. He manages due diligence processes on land, permitting, and utility interconnection and is in charge of financing and structuring through Note to Proceed (“NTP”) to Commercial Operation Date (“COD”). Benoy composes teams suitable for all project development and construction tasks. He is also involved in project planning and pipeline financial modeling. He has been part of all sides of the transaction and this allows him to provide unique perspectives and value. Benoy has extensive experience in financial engineering to make solar projects profitable. Before founding Reneu Energy, he was the SREC Trader in the Project Finance Group for SolarCity which merged with Tesla in 2016.  He originated SREC trades with buyers and co-developed their SREC monetization and hedging strategy with the senior management of SolarCity to move into the east coast markets.  Benoy was the Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners which is a national solar installer where he focused on project finance solutions for commercial scale solar projects.  He also worked for Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund, where he analyzed potential investments in renewable energy projects and worked on maximizing the financial return of the projects in the portfolio.  Benoy also worked on the sale of all of the renewable energy projects in Ridgewood’s portfolio.   He was in the Energy Structured Finance practice for Deloitte & Touche and in Financial Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young.  Benoy received his first experience in Finance as an intern at D.E. Shaw & Co., which is a global investment firm with 37 billion dollars in investment capital. He has a MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from the Stern School of Business at New York University.  Benoy was an Alumni Scholar at the Stern School of Business.  Fox Swim Fox Swim is a data-driven activist with a passion for solving complex social and environmental challenges. With expertise in alternative energy, and urban sustainability, she leverages technical research and leadership skills to drive impactful change. Currently a Senior Industry Researcher at Aurora Solar, Fox focuses on advancing renewable energy solutions while advocating for social justice and sustainability. Related Links https://solarbuildermag.com/news/california-committee-passes-bill-that-would-break-net-metering-contracts/ https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/solar-panel-types https://www.eenews.net/articles/california-bill-would-slash-solar-benefits/  Aurora Solar’s 2025 Snapshot Report   Stay Connected: Benoy Thanjan Email: [email protected]  LinkedIn: Benoy Thanjan Website: https://www.reneuenergy.com   Fox Swim Website:  https://aurorasolar.com/ Linkedin:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/fox-swim-6919061a/   WRISE 20th Anniversary Gala Date & Time: Thursday, June 26, 2025 from 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM Location: Gotham Hall, New York City Occasion: Celebrating 20 years of championing women and underrepresented groups in the renewable & sustainable energy sector  Host & Highlight: Presented by Women of Renewable Industries & Sustainable Energy (WRISE); evening includes networking, recognition of community leaders, and celebration of industry milestones  The link to register is below. https://wrise20thanniversarygala.rsvpify.com/?mc_cid=2c22b50623&mc_eid=0dfa02be45&securityToken=qZn8wqQI1mC1uMRPyb08kNwbscQ23wtX