Southward bound: Central Asia’s Afghanistan pivot

This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we explore a consolidating trend that could redefine Central Asia’s place on the map, not just as a post-Soviet periphery, but as a key connector to South Asia and beyond.But we open with a dispatch about CAPS Unlock activities Astana, where we just wrapped up a rule-of-law training for young professionals.Then, attention turns southward. First to a Russia–Uzbekistan business forum in Novosibirsk, where Russia made a play to reinsert itself into Afghan-bound trade, and then to Termez, the Uzbek city now at the heart of a regional reimagination.In our interview segment, we speak to Eldaniz Gusseinov, a Kazakh expert on regional politics and non-resident research fellow at the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies. Gusseinov unpacks the significance of the Termez Dialogue, a quiet but ambitious platform aimed at boosting Central–South Asian connectivity. He discusses how countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are positioning themselves as middle powers by investing in Afghan trade routes and infrastructure, even amid regional volatility and Taliban realpolitik.Finally, we examine U.S.–Kazakhstan tensions after President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on Kazakh exports. Despite what may be minimal economic impact (although this is uncertain), the move sends confused signals about Washington’s Central Asia policy, particularly after recent diplomatic overtures. We weigh the symbolism, the snub, and what Kazakhstan’s mild-mannered response reveals.Useful links:CAPS Unlock Instagram account: https://www.instagram.com/capsunlock_org/Kazakhstan reacts to Trump tariff threats: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstans-leader-tells-trump-that-he-hopes-compromise-new-us-tariffs-2025-07-10/Report on Uzbek-Russian business forum in Novosibirsk (Russian): https://asia24.media/news/v-novosibirske-proshel-pervyy-biznes-forum-s-uchastiem-predstaviteley-uzbekistana-i-sibiri/Op-ed on Termez Dialogue written by Uzbek government official: https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/termez-dialogue-in-search-of-a-new-paradigm-for-central-and-south-asian-relations Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe