Speakers' Corner: Are markets too optimistic on oil and global shipping?

Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what’s happening in the real economy?In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aster Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.Key takeaways* Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.* Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.* Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.* Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.* Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.* The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.* The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html