Special: Holiday Market Drivers

Housekeeping: Good Morning. “Strategy is just tactics on a longer timeline”Topic: * Hating the 50 DMA* Pre-Holiday Loose Ends: News items to be aware of for the rest of the weekMarket Analysis: Now, completely ignoring my own advice… know that we are Long silver and doubled our position yesterday (Friday) in the hopes that macro discretionary would come in in the new quarter. Our time frame for this to start happening is Monday at the latest.* Full analysis in Premium Related Posts:Coming Soon:Final market checkData on Deck: * MONDAY, JUNE 30 9:45 am Chicago Business Barometer* TUESDAY, JULY 1 9:45 am S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI* WEDNESDAY, JULY 2 8:15 am ADP employment* THURSDAY, JULY 3 8:30 am U.S. unemployment rate* FRIDAY, JULY 4 None scheduled, July 4 holiday* Full calendarCharts and Final Market CheckBeware July 9thWASHINGTON, D.C. – President Trump reaffirmed Tuesday that the U.S. will not extend its tariff pause beyond July 9. Only a deal with the UK and a temporary truce with China have been secured to date. Markets continue to price in optimism that agreements will be reached or talks extended before the deadline. If not, reciprocal tariffs of 20–50% could be reinstated next week. The Bill That Broke up the Musk-Trump Bromance WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Republican-backed "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) budget proposal passed the Senate on Tuesday by a single vote with Vice President J.D. Vance breaking a 50–50 tie. Three Republican senators opposed the bill over concerns about rising deficits and Medicaid cuts. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen as investors demand higher compensation for fiscal risk. The bill now returns to the House of Representatives for another vote. Trump aims to sign the budget by Friday.Powell Pushes Back: Tariffs Drove Rate Cut Freeze SINTRA, PORTUGAL – Speaking at the ECB’s annual forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve went on hold in response to the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariff policy [Edit- B******t see footnote for more] . “All inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said. The central bank has faced mounting pressure from Trump to cut rates, but Powell implied that absent trade policy disruptions, monetary easing would likely have already occurred. U.S. Jobs Data NextGLOBAL – A light macroeconomic calendar lies ahead today, with focus turning to Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Investors are largely sidelined until clearer labor signals emerge. The meltup continues in stocks as the USD melts down This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe